Prime Minister Election: Can Boris Survive into 2020?

Strange as it may seem, there is a section of the population that love an election. Camp beds are set up by the television, strong coffee is permanently on hand and the task is to remain awake through the night until the final votes are counted.

In the UK, even the most ardent of election supporters have had their loyalty tested in recent years. The voting public will go to the polls on December 12, 2019 for the third time in five years and, with Brexit on the line, it’s a hotly contested and, at times, bitter campaign.

Bettors Rejoice

Of course, there is another group who simply cannot wait until another election comes along. The political betting community is growing in numbers and in the present day, there are more pertinent markets than ever before.

Across the world, the UK possesses the most volatile political landscape and it’s therefore no surprise that there are some busy markets relating to Brexit and the 2019 General Election. Among those picks is an option to stake on the future of the current Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Will he make it into 2020? Thanks to Unibet’s betting on the Prime Minister election you can now have your say on the matter.

Will he stay or will he go?

The market in question is a straightforward one and bettors have the option to go in with a very simple yes or no answer. Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the UK on January 1st, 2020?

If you think the answer is ‘yes’ then the odds available currently stand at 1/5 but if it’s a no from you, the price increases to 3/1. There are a number of factors that can decide this issue but the most pressing of these is the UK General Election on December 12, 2019.

Boris in the Frame

We now need to consider the odds for December 2019’s vote and it appears to be good news for anyone looking to back Boris Johnson to remain in power. With exactly one week to go until the General Election, the Conservative Party were red hot favourites to claim the most seats at odds of 1/25. That figure puts the Tories some way clear of Labour at 13/1 while the Liberal Democrats head the list of also rans at 100/1.

That’s a positive start but those numbers do not necessarily suggest that we will avoid a hung parliament with no single party gaining an overall majority. We have some further assistance, however, thanks to an additional Unibet market. Customers can bet on parties to gain an overall majority and as you would expect, the conservatives are out in front at odds of 4/11 while the Labour party can be claimed at 25/1. This has been a very fluid market and, in between those two prices, is an option to bet on No Overall Majority at 9/4.

If you agree with the odds setters in this instance, the Tories will sweep home, Boris will get Brexit done and he will remain in power on New Year’s Day 2020. It’s all pointing to a that 1/5 price on the current Prime Minister making it to the 1st of January but not everyone is on message with this suggestion.

A Matter of Opinion

Opinion polls run on a perpetual basis but we only really notice them when a General Election is called. For the 2019 vote, the gap between the Conservative and the Labour parties has flipped and flopped but the key word is ‘gap’. The Tories have maintained a lead since the election was called and, with exactly one week to go until the people have their say, the Guardian’s opinion poll tracker suggests that the current ruling party will achieve a 43% share of the vote.

It’s a reassuring figure for Conservative voters to an extent but it’s not one that suggests an overall majority is on the cards. Could a hung parliament and further Brexit delays lead to Boris Johnson falling on his sword and stepping down from his post before the end of 2019?

Boris to go?

Back in October, the Independent indicated from sources that Boris Johnson would ‘squat’ in number 10 and even defy any order from the Queen to step down following the controversy regarding the suspension of parliament. It was an extreme scenario but it does underline that the PM is stubborn. He’s been fired in the past - most notably from the Times newspaper - and while he resigned from his post as Foreign Secretary in 2018, his position had seemingly become untenable.

His current role represents the height of his ambition and it’s hard to see Johnson walking away from power unless he is forced to do so. This is where we come back to the General Election vote and the dim prospect of him being ousted by the Labour Party.

There is another option: Boris Johnson could face a vote of no confidence in his leadership. It’s another unlikely scenario mainly because time really isn’t on our side. He has just 19 days to hold out following the election and every MP will want to get back to their constituencies for the Christmas break before picking up outstanding issues at the start of 2020.

Verdict

In summary, we believe that for Boris Johnson to be ousted as the Prime Minister by the end of the year, the conservative party need to be defeated at the forthcoming General Election. An overall majority may be beyond the Tories but it’s hard to argue with those odds of 1/25 on the ruling party obtaining the most seats. From there, a coalition government would appear to be the logical conclusion.

A number of scenarios are possible and the opinion polls have been wrong before but shocks remain rare in the world of political betting. If, therefore, you like a small but relatively safer profit, the odds on Boris Johnson to remain in power on 01/01/20 would appear to be the better option.

Best Bet:

  • Boris Johnson to remain as the UK Prime Minister at 1/5 .

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