In the mid-18th Century, the Chartism movement proposed, as part of a number of electoral reforms, that Britain should hold parliamentary elections every year. Thankfully, that suggestion failed to materialise but in the present day, we could be forgiven for suspecting that the Chartists had actually succeeded.
A UK General Election has yet to become an annual event but on Thursday December the 12th, the country will go to the polls for the third time in less than five years. We’re a union divided by Brexit and even the most apolitical among us have formed views ahead of the most important vote since the last one in 2017. But a section of readers may have to suspend those opinions for just a few minutes as we look to hunt down some profits in the political betting markets on the UK general election.
Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has taken a political pounding in certain areas of the press and on social media. He’s been heckled by various members of the general public across the election trail, yet his Conservative Party are very much the front runners in this year’s vote.
In the market for Most Seats, the Tories are clear favourites at odds of 1/25, ahead of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour at 13/1. The Liberal Democrats are available at 100/1 while the Greens and the Brexit Party are both listed at 500/1. Unlike other operators, we do not have prices for the remaining parties and you’d only be wasting your money if they were published.
Even some minority parties are in disarray. In Boris Johnson’s constituency of Uxbridge, the Monster Raving Loonies have adopted the long-standing Lord Buckethead character who previously stood against several serving Prime Ministers as leader of the Gremloids Party. It’s a controversial move as the original Lord Buckethead has been forced to reinvent himself as Count Binface. It truly is hard to remember a more sad and confusing political landscape.
Markets for the Many
If the prospect of returning a profit at odds of 1/25 on the Conservatives isn’t filling you with optimism for the next five years, you have two options. Either you can bet on one of the remaining parties or, you can stake in a number of additional markets published by Unibet for this election.
The pick that catches the eye involves betting on an overall majority and once again, the Tories are clear favourites at odds of 11/25. There is, however, the option for parliament to be hung, not in the literal sense, but in a situation where no single party has an overall majority. This selection can be claimed at 7/4 which makes it the second favourite, ahead of Labour at 25/1.
Elsewhere, Unibet customers can also take a punt on the next Prime Minister after the election and, if you’ve been paying attention, the prices contained within it will offer no surprises. Current PM Boris Johnson is quoted at 1/4 with Jeremy Corbyn following at 3/1.
At the start of the Lib Dem campaign, Jo Swinson told you that she would be the next Prime Minister. Her record as a tipster is unknown at this stage but we suggest you ignore that advice and listen to the Unibet odds setters who have listed Swinson at 25/1.
There’s more to come: The market on the second highest vote share is led by Labour at 1/40 while both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats follow at 17/1. Based on those prices, you may feel that it’s all fairly predictable up to this point so why not switch to the voter turnout market where there is no odds-on favourite?
Figures start at Even Money for a percentage turnout of 65%-70% and that’s in line with 2017’s return of 68.8%. Clearly, it doesn’t require much of an upturn in interest to move that into the next category. With a voting public disillusioned by the lack of progress on one key question, we could expect the determination to either secure a second EU referendum or to advance that oven ready Brexit deal will boost those numbers. The price for a turnout of 70%-75% stands at 3/1 and that is one of the more tempting picks in this General Election.
If you’ve yet to be sated, then there are two more markets to consider. Options are available on the First New Cabinet after the election and the party to win most seats in Wales. To find out more, just head over to the Unibet political betting page but if you’re ready for some tips, it’s time to make some projections. You can also read more about how to bet on the next Prime Minister of UK.
If you like your profits to be small in order to reflect these austere times, you can take those odds of 1/25 on the Conservatives winning most seats in the 2019 General Election. The polls, and the betting markets, have been a little volatile in the lead up to the vote but the Tories have maintained an advantage and current polls at the time of writing suggest that the ruling party will receive a 46% share this time around.
Yes, those figures have been wrong in the past and even the exit polls have been wide of the mark. Right now, you’ll counter the argument with recollections of 2016 - Trump and Brexit - but shocks remain comparatively rare in the political betting markets and we suspect that the pollsters have got it right this time
If, however, they are perfectly pinpoint in their accuracy, there would be no overall majority for the Conservatives. A hung parliament looks more probable than those 7/4 odds would suggest, and this is our first confirmed pick for the 2019 UK General Election.
To round off what we hope will be a profitable campaign, a small uplift in turnout will help convert at that price of 3/1. Who knows, maybe this preview is enough to boost levels of enthusiasm and encourage voters to exceed that 70% threshold.
- No Overall Majority at 7/4
- Percentage of Voter Turnout 70%-75% at 3/1