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Bundesliga betting tips: Dortmund to maintain their fine record against Leipzig and Julian Nagelsmann

June 19, 2020January 6th, 2022

THE Bundesliga title was wrapped up earlier this week as Bayern Munich completed an impressive but grimly predictable comeback from seventh place when Hansie Flick took over to champions with six games to spare. But there's more to the Bundesliga than Bayern. This weekend could well be decisive in the battle for second place as RB Leipzig host Borussia Dortmund, and in the relegation stakes as Fortuna Dusseldorf try to translate their near-constant draws into victories.

 

Hertha Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Saturday June 20, 14:30 GMT
 

After a run of four games unbeaten to start the Bruno Labbadia era, Hertha are looking at four straight losses if they fall to defeat here. With Leverkusen racking up 5-1 and 6-2 victories in two of their last three trips to the Olympicstadion, and Hertha losing 4-1 to Eintracht in their last home game, the away win looks a distinct possibility.

Last week's 3-1 win over Koln allowed Bayer to hang on to fourth place, just one point ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach, and also to move three points ahead of last year's 55-point total which saw Peter Bosz's side finish fifth. Clear progress has occurred at the BayArena since then, but with Monchengladbach facing now relegated Paderborn this weekend, a continuation of Leverkusen's particularly impressive away form is vital.

Bosz's side are unbeaten in nine away from home in all competitions. They only conceded more than one goal in the first of those matches – a 3-2 win at Union Berlin – and only failed to score three or more away in 1-1 draws at RB Leipzig and, last week, Schalke. Against faltering Hertha, back them to extend their fine away record.

Match Odds: Hertha Berlin (23/5) Draw (3/1) Bayer Leverkusen (3/5)
Tip: Bayer Leverkusen to win and both teams to score (9/5)
Correct score: Hertha Berlin 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen (10/1)

 

Bayern Munich vs Freiburg | Saturday June 20, 14:30 GMT
 

Bayern's 29th league title, sealed earlier this week, means the Bavarians have now won more than all other German teams combined (28). That accomplishment was roundly belittled, perhaps fairly, given Munich have now won eight straight, however, Hansie Flick deserves immense credit for inheriting a side in seventh and then winning 26 of his first 29 games.

Freiburg's European hopes dimmed when they collected just two points from their first four post-lockdown games, but an excellent run of seven points from three games against Monchengladbach, Wolfsburg and Hertha Berlin have them back in contention. Could title celebrations and an in-form opponent conspire to see Bayern slip to defeat? Spoiler alert: absolutely no chance. One more win and Munich will set a new record of 15 straight wins in all competitions – something no German team has ever done.

Robert Lewandowski is back in the side after suspension, and while he needs a considerable nine goals to match Gerd Muller's Bundesliga record of 40 in one season, you can bet your bottom dollar he's going to give it everything he's got. It wouldn't be surprising to see him get a few this weekend – whether he does not, Bayern will run riot.

Match Odds: Bayern Munich (2/9) Draw (13/2) Freiburg (9/1)
Tip: Robert Lewandowski to score at least 2 goals (37/20)
Correct score: Bayern Munich 4-1 Freiburg (35/1)

 

 

Mainz vs Werder Bremen | Saturday June 20, 14:30 GMT
 

There's been a baffling pattern to Mainz's results: disappointing 1-0 defeat at home to Hoffenheim, impressive 2-0 win away at Eintracht, disappointing 1-0 defeat at home to Augsburg, impressive 2-0 win away at Dortmund. But that's just Mainz: one win in their last 10 home games, just three defeats in their last 10 away. I'm almost tempted to leave at there – acknowledge the fact that Mainz are at home and simply except the pattern to continue.

But that would do a disservice to Werder who, despite losing three of their last four games, all at home, are actually showing signs of promise. Late goal defeats to Eintracht and Wolfsburg were tough to swallow but the 1-0 loss to Bayern this week just felt unjust – Werder warranted at least a point. Bremen's last away game – a thrilling 5-0 win at Paderborn – should stand them in good stead to push on here. Mainz cannot play at home, and Werder are itching to take their recent frustration out of someone. Back the away win.

Match Odds: Mainz (8/5) Draw (13/5) Werder Bremen (8/5)
Tip: Werder Bremen to score first and win (2/1)
Correct score: Mainz 0-2 Werder Bremen (12/1)
 

 

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Augsburg | Saturday June 20, 14:30 GMT
 

Dusseldorf are another side in perplexing form at the moment. Over the last 13 Bundesliga matches, they've lost just two matches which is bettered only by Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig (both 0), but still find themselves third bottom, five points from safety. Had they turned just three of their eight draws in that 13-game run into victories, they would be out of the relegation zone – obviously that's easier said than done.

But then Augsburg's have their own tale of form it's hard to get your head around. Die Fuggerstädter's last eight seven games in the Bundesliga fall into one of two categories: wins to nil (Schalke, Mainz) and defeats to nil (Union Berlin, Eintracht, Leverkusen, Bayern, Hertha). Interestingly however, both away wins have come post-lockdown which tallies with the popular suggestion that's it much easier to win away from home at the moment. Fortuna have blown too many chances to stay up, Augsburg will not give them another one here.

Match Odds: Fortuna Dusseldorf (10/11) Draw (27/10) Augsburg (14/5)
Tip: Under 2.5 goals (21/10)
Correct score: Fortuna Dusseldorf 0-2 Augsburg (18/1)

 

Schalke vs Wolfsburg | Saturday June 20, 14:30 GMT
 

Regular readers of these Bundesliga betting previews will possibly approach the Schalke section with trepidation, roll their eyes and think 'Oh man, I hope this isn't just going to be another rant about David Wagner again'. Well, dear reader, I'm sorry to let you down. Schalke have not won in the Bundesliga for…. *actually checks notes*…. 14 matches. 14 matches in which a measly six points have been collected and six goals scored (rechecks notes). 14 matches in which Schalke went from being fourth, three points ahead of rivals Dortmund, to 10th, 27 points behind them (rubs eyes, checks notes again). How bad does it have to get?

Odds of 4/1 to beat Europa League hopefuls Wolfsburg at home are frankly staggering for a side with genuine title ambitions earlier in the season, especially as The Wolves were just hammered 3-0 by Monchengladbach. Tough as that result was to take, opening up the battle for sixth place as it did, there is nothing more motivating than playing Schalke at the moment. They are the worst performing team in Europe's top five leagues in 2020, and there's no reason to suggest they will suddenly change this weekend. Back Wolfsburg.

Match Odds: Schalke (4/1) Draw (3/1) Wolfsburg (4/6)
Tip: Wout Weghorst to score any time (19/20)
Correct score: Schalke 0-2 Wolfsburg (15/2)

 

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund | Saturday June 20, 14:30 GMT
 

Leipzig's post-lockdown results must be a source of intense frustration for Julian Nagelsmann. Four home games: all score draws; three away games: all comfortable wins. Had those home draws been wins, Leipzig would not only be comfortably second with a chance to really stick it to Dortmund this weekend, they'd still be in the title race. Alas, the season for both teams is now just about competing for the best of the rest honour.

Dortmund's surprise 2-0 defeat to Mainz – the first time a top two side in Europe's top five leagues – has lost to an opponent outside the top two, opened the door for Leipzig to atke second place from them. Sure, Leipzig squandered the first part by drawing with Dusseldorf, but a two-goal victory on Saturday will see them leapfrog Lucien Favre's side. But Dortmund have proved tricky opponents for both Leipzig and their coach.

RB have never beaten Dortmund in the Bundesliga and have only managed two goals against them, their lowest total against any opponent. Nagelsmann's average of 0.9 points per game in his eight matches against Dortmund represents his lowest return against any opponent. BVB have also won five straight away from home, scoring 13 and conceding just two. They have the psychological edge in this one.

Match Odds: RB Leipzig (27/20) Draw (15/2) Borussia Dortmund (39/20)
Tip: Borussia Dortmund to win (39/20)
Correct score: RB Leipzig 1-2 Borussia Dortmund (9/1)