LIVERPOOL and Newcastle head to Wembley this Sunday, each with a defeat weighing on their minds.

For the Reds it’s a fresh wound, one that is days, if not weeks away from scabbing over. On Tuesday evening, they threw the proverbial kitchen sink at a remarkable PSG collective only to see their Champions League dream extinguished.

“There’s a lot of tired legs in there,” Andy Robertson revealed post-match and if the immense disappointment of going out on pens might possibly be channeled into even greater motivation to secure some silverware this weekend, what about the physical toll of matching the French champions for 120 minutes?

Certainly, fatigue could become a factor if the contest is evenly balanced beyond the 70^th minute mark.

As for the Magpies, their baggage is two years old, dating back to February 26^th, 2023, to be precise.

It was on that day when Eddie Howe’s side encountered Manchester United in this same marquee fixture, and all the talk beforehand focused on Newcastle’s golden opportunity to end a trophy drought that was approaching a seventh decade.

The Magpies finished fourth that season, and furthermore took four points off United on route, but when it mattered the most several of their key players froze, the occasion clearly getting to them. The trophy drought continued.

We can be sure that Howe will remind his personnel of this in the days ahead, urging them to recall what it felt like to applaud a devout and forever loyal Toon Army, with runner-up medals around their neck. Urging them to this time make it count.

The last five League Cup finals have averaged 10.4 shots on target combined per 90. Over 10.5 at 15/8 therefore is decent value for sure

If that wasn’t already a tall order, however, given the quality of the opposition, they must do so with the left side of their team decimated by injuries and suspension.

Anthony Gordon misses out, two games into a three match ban after being sent off against Brighton. So often his side’s sparkplug, the winger’s enterprise will be a huge loss for the 4/1 underdogs, and that’s before we acknowledge his 11 goal involvements this term.

At the back meanwhile, both Sven Botman and Lewis Hall are set to be long-term absentees, and with Tino Livramento expected to be switched across to left-back that brings up concerns over how Mo Salah may be handled. Being naturally right-footed, will Livramento be comfortable showing the Egyptian down the line, effectively backing his weaker foot? He has to every chance he gets if Newcastle are to curtail a phenomenal player reveling in a phenomenal season.

Salah to this point has scored or assisted every 66 minutes in 2024/25. He has also scored or assisted – on occasion multiple times – in each of his last six meetings with the Magpies.

72% of Salah’s 32 goals this season have come after the break. Back Salah to score or assist and Liverpool to win the second half at 9/5

Staying with that flank Liverpool too are weakened, what with Trent Alexander-Arnold falling awkwardly late-on against PSG. With Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez also unavailable it’s likeliest that Arne Slot will deploy Jarell Quansah there and not for the first time either against Newcastle this season, his performance back in December’s 3-3 draw illustrating all-too-starkly what the Reds will be deprived of this Sunday.

As Trent rested on the bench, Quansah struggled to contain Gordon, the winger scoring on the hour-mark. The defender was also booked early doors.

When Slot had seen enough and brought on the England international he wasted little time in carving out two assists.

Similarly then, if Salah can capitalise on enforced changes in his vicinity could Harvey Barnes do likewise?

Barnes has been talked up to the rafters on these very pages several times over in the past, a player criminally under-rated and routinely impactful. He deserves better than to be merely cast as Gordon’s understudy.

Still, if that’s the role allocated, that’s the role he typically excels in, taking on two shots on target and two key passes in his first league start for three months away to West Ham last Monday. Moreover, he cleverly dinked a delivery that required the barest of touches from Guimaraes for the only goal of the game.

Back Harvey to have over 0.5 shots on target at 59/50

While highlighting individuals it would be remiss not to mention Alexander Isak, the Swede bagging 15 in his last 14 league outings. The same goes for Dominik Szoboszlai, a Duracell bunny imbued with genuine class. No player in the top-flight has applied more pressures than the Liverpool midfielder this campaign.

All of which is to say that, despite numerous absences, there is more than talent on display at the home of football this weekend to ensure this Carabao Cup in a cracker. It’s regrettable then to point out that the last six finals have all produced three or under goals, two of them being goalless stalemates.

Liverpool are unbeaten in 17 against the Magpies. Back them to win 2-1 and lift the Carabao Cup this Sunday at 6/1

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