Does Champions League expulsion really spell the end for Pep Guardiola at Man City?

THE pressure for Pep Guardiola to deliver Manchester City the long-coveted Champions League title already weighed heavily on the Catalan coach’s shoulders before it became clear that the competition’s famous anthem might not be heard again at the Etihad Stadium for a long time after this season. 

Indeed, the news of Man City’s two-season suspension from the Champions League and £25 million fine meted out by UEFA for violations relating to the governing body’s Financial Fair Play regulations has the potential to drastically change the outlook for Guardiola at the club, not to mention the landscape of European football as a whole.

Of course, it should be noted that City intend to appeal the punishment to the Court of Arbitration For Sport (CAS), alleging that UEFA’s process was “prejudicial.” But if the ban sticks, or even if it is reduced as Chelsea’s transfer embargo was last year or if the appeal is still being heard when next season’s Champions League campaign begins, it will surely have an influence on what Guardiola does next.

OFFICIAL: Manchester City will pursue an impartial judgment as quickly as possible and will therefore, in the first instance, commence proceedings with the Court of Arbitration for Sport at the earliest opportunity.

[via @ManCity] https://t.co/6xKrw03zod

— Man City Xtra (@City_Xtra) February 14, 2020

Even before this ruling there had been speculation over Guardiola’s future at the Etihad Stadium. This season has been a chastening one for the 49-year-old, with Liverpool already Premier League champions-elect and serious questions being asked of the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss. While a difficult first season in England was excused on the basis of clear ideological progress, Guardiola has struggled to demonstrate exactly what City’s next steps will be under his stewardship.

It already feels as if City are coming to the end of a cycle under Guardiola. Their squad needs another overhaul. This, of course, will be much tougher to implement should City not have Champions League football to attract the best talent. The Catalan’s methods and ideas appear to saturate in the minds of players after three to four years of working together and Man City seem to be reaching that point. Friday’s news could hasten a parting of ways.

While City saw the appointment of Guardiola as central to a bigger project, the man himself likely viewed the City job as just another opportunity to add yet more Infinity Stones to his managerial Thanos gauntlet. Consider how Guardiola left Bayern Munich having failed to deliver the Champions League trophy, the thing the Bavarians wanted above all else. Guardiola has previously proven a willingness to move on when objectives are, as he sees them, unachievable.

No it won‘t! Announce Pep! #bringpepback pic.twitter.com/vsSGVrhbDL

— Josep Maria Bartomeu (@JosepMariaBart2) February 16, 2020

Guardiola wouldn’t exactly be short of options. Juventus, for starters, are believed to have trailed for the last few years the Catalan in much the same way Manchester City did before he eventually pitched up at the Etihad Stadium. A return to Barcelona has always seemed inevitable, although Guardiola might be wise to wait for next years presidential elections and a change of regime before retreading old steps. PSG could also be in the market for a new manager soon with Thomas Tuchel's future under examination.

City have bigger things to worry about than losing their manager, illustrating just how grave their current situation is. UEFA’s ruling poses an existential question of the club’s ownership. It’s not just Manchester City who have been threatened by Friday’s judgement. Paris Saint-Germain, for one, will be paying close attention to what happens from this point on.

And yet Guardiola’s departure prompted by a two-year Champions League suspension would offer the starkest illustration of the damage this ruling will cause. It could set Man City back further than just two seasons just at the point they are looking to move into a new generation. The sight of Guardiola, the man whose arrival confirmed City as an elite club, walking away would be symbolic in the extreme.