Europa League or bust: Arsenal’s domestic decline increases pressure on Emery

A week or so ago, Arsenal had cause for genuine optimism about their chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. They were the front-runners for fourth place, with a Europa League semi-final in their back pocket as back-up. However a disastrous seven days, encompassing three defeats, has left their Premier League hopes all but extinguished. The Europa League has suddenly shifted from a potential bonus to the competition upon which Unai Emery’s maiden season will stand or fall.

Fortunately for both Arsenal and Emery himself, the Spanish coach is something of a Europa League specialist. He won the trophy three times in as many years with Sevilla, and Arsenal’s recent performances in continental competition have been significantly more assured than their domestic outings. Some have even wondered whether Emery’s focus had been drawn away from Premier League matters by the allure of silverware. 

The players certainly appeared much more motivated in their two-legged tie against Napoli than they did on trips to Wolves and Leicester, even overcoming their travel sickness to win the second leg 1-0 at the San Paolo Stadium.

Arsenal are only the second team to win at Napoli's Stadio San Paolo this season.

Over those two games (vs Arsenal & Juventus) Napoli averaged over 66% possession, took 41 shots at goal (7 on target) and faced just 13 shots (7 on target). 1 goal for, 3 against. pic.twitter.com/Rl3MlkHqLF

— The Tactical Times (@Tactical_Times) April 19, 2019

They’ll need another strong performance if they are to overcome semi-final opponents Valencia—another club whose struggles in the league have seen this competition take on paramount importance. Valencia currently sit sixth in La Liga, so a place at Europe’s top table may be contingent on cup success.

Arsenal fans will hope that as a Spaniard and former Valencia coach himself, Emery will be able to provide some inside knowledge on their latest opponents. The reality is that it’s been seven years since Emery left Valencia, and they’re now a very different side. However, there will be a couple of familiar faces for Arsenal fans: both Gabriel Paulista and Francis Coquelin now ply their trade with the Spanish side.

It does seem absurd that Arsenal effectively gave Valencia Gabriel and about twenty million pounds in exchange for Shkodran Mustafi. The Brazilian has some rough edges to his game, but he’s certainly a superior centre-half to the error-prone German.

Valencia’s key player will also be somewhat familiar to English fans: midfielder Dani Parejo spent half a season on loan in the Championship with Queen’s Park Rangers. It was Emery who brought Parejo to Valencia from Getafe and installed him as the creative hub of this team.

Dani Parejo’s first half vs. Atletico Madrid by numbers:

90% pass accuracy 3 successful take-ons 2 fouls suffered 1 interception 1 tackle won

So underrated. pic.twitter.com/2vLkDzJ9Yt

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) April 24, 2019

Parejo is the club’s top goalscorer this season, which tells you something about their struggles in front of goal. In fact, they've scored 19 times fewer than fifth-placed Sevilla—something which has doubtless contributed to the fact that they’ve drawn as many as 16 of their 35 league games.

It’s worth noting that Valencia don’t exactly come into this game brimming with confidence either. They’ve lost their last two games, the most recent of which was a shock home defeat to mid-table Eibar. If Arsenal could hand-pick an opponent, they’d probably go for a shot-shy outfit whose morale has taken a dent.

Emery can not afford to take many risks with his team selection, even though the fixture list looks daunting and legs look tired. One even wonders if he might waver from playing Petr Cech in this competition, and instead install his true number one, Bernd Leno. It would be a ruthless move but arguably needs must.

The home leg will be hugely important. Against Napoli, Arsenal effectively won the tie in the first leg, enabling them to go to Italy with confidence and a cushion. Emery will be looking for a similarly strong start this time around. Quite frankly, Arsenal look like a team who will need to go to Valencia with a significant advantage to feel remotely comfortable.

Things may look a little bleak for Arsenal fans right now. This has undoubtedly been their most difficult period of the campaign. However, they should not lose sight of the fact that their season could yet end in Baku, securing both a trophy and Champions League qualification. The Europa League no longer feels like merely a consolation prize. Emery and Arsenal are just three games from achieving both their major goals.