Gary Mabbutt | Opta: Is Premier League Relegation in 2024-25 as simple as any three from four?

THE 2024-25 Premier League season is certainly shaping up to be historic, for the first time in 126 English Top-Flight seasons four teams are winless through their first eight matches. It’s a stark reminder of how competitive and unpredictable the league can be.

Wolverhampton Wanderers (D1 L7), Southampton (D1 L7), Ipswich Town (D4 L4) and Crystal Palace (D3 L5) are still without a victory following Matchday 8 of 2024-25, with Palace’s defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday night sealing the record.

Winless teams after 8 PL games who avoided relegation
Season	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	Final Position
1995	Everton	8	0	3	5	7	18	3	15
1997	Blackburn Rovers	8	0	3	5	5	11	3	13
1999	Southampton	8	0	1	7	3	21	1	17
2001	Derby County	8	0	5	3	14	19	5	17
2009	Tottenham Hotspur	8	0	2	6	5	12	2	8
2014	Sunderland	8	0	1	7	5	20	1	14
2016	Sunderland	8	0	3	5	8	18	3	17
2019	Newcastle United	8	0	2	6	6	13	2	13
2022	Newcastle United	8	0	3	5	10	19	3	11
2024	Bournemouth	8	0	3	5	5	18	3	12

The previous record in the Premier League was three clubs without a win at this stage of the season, occurring in both 2021-22 (Newcastle United, Burnley and Norwich City) and 2018-19 (Newcastle, Cardiff City, Huddersfield Town) which saw four of those six eventually relegated at the end of those seasons and only Newcastle United avoiding such a plight (in 2019 and 2022).

In fact, just 10 teams (out of 29 winless after eight games) have managed to avoid relegation in the previous 32 Premier League seasons, with clubs from the Northeast having a particular knack for doing so – both Newcastle (in 2018-19 and 2021-22) and Sunderland (in 2013-14 and 2015-16) have stayed up on two different occasions following such a start to the season.

The most recent team to stay up from such a bad start to their Premier League campaign was Bournemouth last season, who were without a win in their first nine games but eventually finished 12TH! In fact, from their 10th game onwards (their first victory) they went on to gain 45 points in total, only fewer than five other teams.

Among this season’s bottom four, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton are currently struggling the most, with just one point from their eight games making this Wolves’ worst-ever start to a top-flight season. Southampton have been in this exact position before and managed to claw themselves out and avoid relegation – in 1998-99 they had one point after their first eight games yet went onto gain 28 points in the second half of the season and eventually avoid relegation by five points. So, they can keep faith in knowing its possible!

Ipswich Town, despite having the most points among the winless teams (4), share a troubling parallel with Burnley and Luton from last season, both of whom faced relegation after similar starts.

Crystal Palace’s situation, while bleak, shows potential for recovery, as they have previously bounced back from having just three points at this stage in recent seasons – going onto finish 11th in both 2013-14 and 2017-18.

Teams with one point after 8 PL games
Season	Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	Final Position
1996	Manchester City	8	0	1	7	3	14	1	18
1999	Southampton	8	0	1	7	3	21	1	17*
2000	Sheffield Wednesday	8	0	1	7	3	23	1	19
2014	Sunderland	8	0	1	7	5	20	1	14*
2021	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	4	14	1	20
2024	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	6	22	1	20
2025	Southampton	8	0	1	7	6	18	1	?
2025	Wolves	8	0	1	7	10	23	1	?
*Avoided Relegation

.Wolves and Southampton are just the 7th and 8th teams to gain one point or fewer after 8 Premier League games, with that previous great escape from Southampton (in 1998-99) one of just two occasions a team has avoided relegation from such a situation in the competition (also Sunderland in 2013-14).

One positive for all four clubs is the fact that only three teams can be relegated meaning at least one of the current winless clubs are guaranteed to stay up and all four sides will believe they can do it!

Who has the best chances of doing so according to Opta’s Supercomputer?

Crystal Palace (80%) currently have the best chance of staying up among the bottom four according to Opta’s predictor model, with even Leicester City (28% – currently in 14th) having a higher percentage chance of relegation than the Eagles (19%). Southampton on the other hand are given just a 4% chance of survival, with the supercomputer making them the most likely to finish in 20th place (61%).

Wolves, despite their worst ever start to a top-flight campaign have a 42% chance of beating the drop, while Ipswich have just 22%.

Given how hard three points is to come by, the four point gap between Ipswich in 17th and West Ham and Everton in 15th and 16th (both on eight points) might already seem a mountain to climb, with those two sides given a 97% probability of avoiding relegation by Opta’s predictor. Although, teams have been relegated with eight or more points after eight Premier League games on 30 different occasions, with Leeds United the last such side to do so in 2022-23 (nine points after eight games). So it might not be quite as simple as three out of the current winless four teams to go down!

For the teams currently struggling, it’s crucial to remember that early-season woes don’t necessarily dictate the entire campaign. With tactical adjustments and perhaps some key player contributions, any of these clubs could find their form and avoid relegation. It will be fascinating to see who can emulate Bournemouth’s last season and turn their season around.

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