Harvey Downes – Opta | Six without a win – City in a spin!

• Five successive defeats in all competitions for the first time since April 2006.
• Three straight Premier League losses for the first time since March 2016.
• The first reigning English top-flight champions to lose five games in a row in all competitions since Chelsea in March 1956.
• The longest losing run in Pep Guardiola’s managerial career (5) and the joint longest winless run (6).
• The joint biggest loss of Pep Guardiola’s managerial career (Man City 0-4 Spurs).
• The first time a Pep Guardiola side has let a 3-goal lead slip in his 942 game managerial career (Man City 3-3 Feyenoord).

This is uncharted territory for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City. A sequence of results that have been as concerning as their underlying metrics. Tuesday night’s 3-3 draw with Feyenoord was arguably as damaging as the five consecutive defeats that had proceeded it.  Not even the news of Pep’s contract renewal has managed to stem the tide.

A raucous Anfield awaits the deflated champions on Sunday and the possibility of trailing the league leaders by 11 points.

So, what’s actually going on at City?

Rodri a bigger miss than first anticipated? Are cluster injuries to blame? An over reliance on Haaland?  Or are the issues deeper rooted? Has this iteration of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City come to the end of its cycle? Let’s investigate…

Ballon d’Or shaped hole in City’s midfield

Since and including their final game of the 2022-23 Premier League season (a 1-0 loss at Brentford), Manchester City have lost 11 games in all competitions. Rodri didn’t feature in 10 of those defeats. During this period, City’s win percentage drops from 75% when he’s been present to 52% when he’s been missing.

With Rodri	Man City All Comps Since 28-05-2023	Without Rodri
55	Games	27
41	Wins	14
13	Draws	3
1	Losses	10
133	Goals For	58
2.4	Avg. Goals For	2.1
48	Goals Against	36
0.9	Avg. Goals Against	1.3
75%	Win Percent	52%

When Rodri went down against Arsenal, it felt like a potential title deciding moment, but no one would have predicted just how difficult City would find it to adapt in his absence.

Since his injury (MD6 onwards), Manchester City have conceded more big chances in the Premier League than any other side (30). Meanwhile, no team has faced more shots from fast breaks than the Citizens (11).

PL 24-25 Since Rodri’s Injury	Big Chances Conceded		PL 24-25 Since Rodri’s Injury	Shots Faced From Fast Breaks
Manchester City	30		Manchester City	11
Ipswich Town	29		Aston Villa	11
Leicester City	28		Manchester United	9
Brighton & Hove Albion	26		Brighton & Hove Albion	8
Southampton	24		Southampton	8
Chelsea	22		West Ham United	8

38% of the chances created by opponents against Manchester City this season have come through the centre of the pitch, where Rodri would usually be patrolling. Saturday’s midfield three of Ilkay Gündogan, Rico Lewis and Bernardo Silva – as technically gifted as the trio are – left a lot to be desired defensively, with Spurs cutting through at will.

Having missed out on Declan Rice two summers ago, it’s no surprise City have been linked with the likes of Real Sociedad’s Martin Zubimendi ahead of the January transfer window as Pep Guardiola looks to fill the hole left by his midfield general.

Injuries costing City

It’s not just Rodri that has fallen victim to the effects of the relentless fixture schedule. Other key players have missed significant minutes for City so far this season which has enforced them to make the most starting XI changes in the Premier League so far this term (29).

The likes of Phil Foden (51% of minutes played), Kevin De Bruyne (36%) and John Stones (26%), who have been stalwarts in Manchester City’s recent title wins, are all still yet to get their seasons properly up and running, which may provide Pep Guardiola with some sort of encouragement ahead of the second half of the campaign.

PL 24-25 Man City	Minutes	% Minutes Played
Ederson	1080	100.0%
Haaland, Erling	1079	99.9%
Gvardiol, Josko	1033	95.6%
Bernardo Silva	924	85.6%
Kovacic, Mateo	880	81.5%
Akanji, Manuel	872	80.7%
Lewis, Rico	846	78.3%
Rúben Dias	726	67.2%
Gündogan, Ilkay	717	66.4%
Savinho	603	55.8%
Walker, Kyle	558	51.7%
Foden, Phil	551	51.0%
Doku, Jérémy	407	37.7%
De Bruyne, Kevin	389	36.0%
Grealish, Jack	363	33.6%
Matheus Nunes	291	26.9%
Stones, John	284	26.3%
Aké, Nathan	120	11.1%
Simpson-Pusey, Jahmai	90	8.3%
Rodri	66	6.1%
McAtee, James	1	0.1%

Over reliance on Haaland & misfiring forwards

Haaland started the season like a house on fire, becoming the fastest player to reach 10 goals in a Premier League campaign (MD5). However, since then, the Norwegian powerhouse has scored just two goals in seven games, but it’s not been for the want of trying, firing off 36 shots, accumulating to an xG of 6.1.

PL 24-25 Haaland	Opponent	Mins	Goals	xG	Shots
MD1	Chelsea	90	1	0.28	2
MD2	Ipswich Town	89	3	1.79	7
MD3	West Ham United	90	3	1.71	5
MD4	Brentford	90	2	1.1	6
MD5	Arsenal	90	1	0.94	6
MD6	Newcastle United	90	0	0.45	5
MD7	Fulham	90	0	0.25	4
MD8	Wolverhampton Wanderers	90	0	0	0
MD9	Southampton	90	1	2.33	8
MD10	Bournemouth	90	0	0.88	5
MD11	Brighton and Hove Albion	90	1	1.38	7
MD12	Tottenham Hotspur	90	0	0.82	7

 

Despite his recent league form, Haaland still tops the charts for scoring the highest % of a team’s Premier League goals this season. While this has been the case since his arrival in England, Manchester City’s lack of goals from other sources has been a major contributing factor to their recent run. Only Everton and Newcastle (5 each) have had fewer different Premier League scorers than the Citizens this season (6), with a number of their players yet to find the back of the net and misfiring in front of goal.

Team	Team Goals	Player	Player Goals	%
Manchester City	22	Haaland, Erling	12	54.5%
Nottingham Forest	15	Wood, Chris	8	53.3%
Ipswich Town	13	Delap, Liam	6	46.2%
Liverpool	24	Mohamed Salah	10	41.7%
Brentford	22	Mbeumo, Bryan	8	36.4%

PL 24-25	Total Shots	Goals		PL 24-25	xG	Goals
Foden, Phil	20	0		Savinho	1.8	0
Bernardo Silva	18	0		Milenkovic, Nikola	1.68	0
Tete, Kenny	17	0		Bernardo Silva	1.48	0
Savinho	17	0		Schade, Kevin	1.47	0
Nketiah, Eddie	17	0		Gündogan, Ilkay	1.39	0
Anderson, Elliot	15	0		Foden, Phil	1.38	0
Lindstrøm, Jesper	14	0		Tielemans, Youri	1.34	0
Bruno Guimarães	14	0		Muñoz, Daniel	1.33	0
Gueye, Idrissa	14	0		Harrison, Jack	1.18	0
Gusto, Malo	13	0		Lindstrøm, Jesper	1.12	0
Fatawu, Abdul	13	0
Gündogan, Ilkay	12	0

 End of an era?

The below graphic shows the make-up of Manchester City’s current Premier League squad, the share of minutes they have played this season and where they are at in terms of the stage of their career. I’ll leave you to make your own assumptions…

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