Jamie Kemp: Weekend fixtures bring the Premier League relegation picture into focus

TO the London Stadium, then, for a game between two sides who weren’t supposed to be here but very much are.

West Ham finished 7th in the Premier League and reached the Europa League semi-finals last season, before topping up their squad with the likes of Lucas Paquetá and Gianluca Scamacca. Everton, meanwhile, ended their season with a pitch invasion at Goodison Park after clinching survival; a release that spoke of relief and the feeling that things could only get better, that their near-miss with the drop had been a one-off within their Premier League omnipresence.

Not so fast.

While Everton’s record this season is their worst ever after 19 games of a Premier League campaign, West Ham have a point fewer at the same stage this season as they did when they were last relegated in 2011.

Although there are differing degrees of urgency towards the bottom of the table, the optics of a defeat in Saturday’s fixture would unquestionably be damning for both. West Ham could lose to the team who just lost at home to bottom of the league; Everton could lose back-to-back games against teams in the relegation zone.

In fact, under Frank Lampard, Everton have played seven games against sides starting the day in the Premier League drop zone and only won one of them, while losing each of the last three in a row. The Toffees haven’t won away from home against an opponent in the Premier League’s bottom three since March 2021, when Carlo Ancelotti was in charge – he’s won just the four trophies with Real Madrid since then.

The situation is deeply concerning for West Ham in the short term, of course. But it is Everton who head into the weekend with the more imminent fear of the drop, and fewer assurances that all of this can turn around.

Speaking of the Cherries, they will also be in action in the Premier League on Saturday, and they too will face off against another side trying to secure Premier League survival.

Indeed, with Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forest, along with Everton travelling to West Ham, four of the seven teams with the highest probability of relegation this season – according to Opta’s prediction model – will come up against each other this weekend. That means opportunities to sweeten the picture for the aforementioned sides in the relegation zone, but also the threat of being cut further adrift by Saturday evening if things don’t go to plan.

If you’re a fan of any of the teams involved at the bottom end, you might be wondering how that overall picture looks in terms of order…

Alright, maybe not too bad for the Hammers just yet.

While the likes of Wolves, Leeds, West Ham and Nottingham Forest find themselves in a state of high vigilance – knowing adverse results in coming weeks could implicate them in a more concerning manner – it is Bournemouth and Everton who head into the weekend with the greatest necessity in terms of the grand scheme.

Games against sides on the fringes of the relegation battle represent opportunities to both strengthen their own cases and penalise those closest to them; the chance to prevent dividing lines being drawn in the race against the drop.

Should Bournemouth and/or Everton fall to defeat on Saturday, meanwhile, history will not be much on their side within view of the 20-game benchmark. Of teams to have won 15 or fewer points after 20 games of a Premier League season, 73% of those have gone on to be relegated in that same campaign.

What’s more, a defeat for Frank Lampard’s side on Saturday would result in this being Everton’s worst return after 20 games of a league campaign in the club’s history (accounting for 3pts/win all-time). Things are bad now, but the reality of things truly never having been worse would be tough to recover from.

Everton’s record after 20 games of a league season – all-time record

And so, into the weekend we go. The chance for things to get better for a select few, the chance for some to separate themselves with a pleasant cushion, and the chance that might slip through the fingers of others.

As the season prepares to cross the halfway point for those at the bottom, an unfortunate three will do so towards an end point better described as an abyss.