Jordan Pickford is bullishly oblivious to the cost of his deteriorating form, but he may soon have a rude awakening

IN a manner becoming all too familiar, it took Jordan Pickford just three seconds to twice exasperate Everton fans during his side’s 3-0 defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers last Sunday.

It wasn’t with any of the goals the England goalkeeper shipped that Everton supporters most took umbrage, but rather with a brief instant in the 62nd minute, with the Toffees already two down, which seemed to encapsulate everything about Pickford that has come to so frustrate.

There was nothing especially threatening about Daniel Podence’s shot. The Portuguese winger was off balance when he struck it, moving away from goal and able to generate barely enough power to trouble the trim of the Molineux turf. Yet still Pickford managed to manufacture misadventure, allowing the ball to slip between his gloves as he stooped to collect it, gliding through his legs and toward goal.

The blunder was prevented from becoming costly as Pickford spun and clasped the ball on the goal line. But his reaction to doing so, poking his tongue out for the cameras, was perceived by many as being a show of brashness when quiet contrition would have been more appropriate. It was the mark of a player bullishly oblivious to the cost of his deteriorating form.

Jordan Pickford did this against Wolves #WOLEVE pic.twitter.com/qtUDNyFYa7

— Scoreboard Digest (@scoreboarddg) July 12, 2020

Southampton (58) are the only team inside the Premier League’s top 15 positions to have conceded more goals than Everton (52) this season. Pickford can hardly be held accountable for every goal Carlo Ancelotti’s side have shipped, but the statistics behind his personal performances paint an alarming picture.

Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) is a statistic used to measure the quality and frequency of shots a goalkeeper has faced. It is calculated based not only on the position on the field of the shooting player but also the accuracy of the subsequent shot (i.e. which part of the goal it hits). By measuring the PSxG a goalkeeper faces against the number of goals they concede, we can build a picture of their shot-stopping value.

Per fbref.com, Pickford has faced a PSxG total for this season of 45.4. Even excluding the three own goals Everton have conceded in the league this term, which are not figured in to the PSxG number, this means Pickford has conceded more goals than would be expected of the average goalkeeper based on the shots he has faced. This -3.6 differential ranks Pickford 35th of the 38 goalkeepers to have featured in the Premier League in 2019-20.

By way of comparison, Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson, a rival for the England No.1 shirt, ranks third-best in the league. The on-loan Manchester United keeper has conceded just 27 goals, against a PSxG total of 34.7 (a +7.7 differential). Nick Pope, another England rival, is mid-table in 18th with, excluding own goals, 36 conceded against a PSxG of 36.1 – performing exactly as expected.

A more basic yet still instructive measure of goalkeeping performance is the percentage of shots saved. Again, Pickford scores poorly. Of the 20 regular starting goalkeepers in the Premier League this season, only Chelsea’s Kepa Arrizabalaga (56.5 per cent) ranks below Pickford (63.8 per cent). Henderson (73.9 per cent) is in the top three again, while Pope (70.9 per cent) is joint-ninth.

It’s not just the numbers that speak damningly of Pickford’s performances, though; he’s failing the eye test, too.

"The bottom line with Pickford, I don't need to see the stats," said Roy Keane after the Everton goalkeeper’s soft concession of a speculative Bruno Fernandes strike in Everton’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United in February, "I know he's not a good goalkeeper. He's not up to it."

That day, David de Gea’s mistake at the other end – kicking the ball against Dominic Calvert-Lewin and it ricocheting straight back into the United net – was the more significant error, and Pickford made an impressive double save at the death to preserve a point, so his letting Fernandes’ shot slip wasn’t dwelled upon.

What was noted at the time, though, was that, since the start of last season, no Premier League keeper had committed more errors leading directly to a goal than Pickford’s seven.

Pickford’s sliding form over the past 18 months has drawn unwanted comparisons with Joe Hart’s fall from grace. The former Manchester City and England No.1, currently without a club, was too often over-hyped for under-performance, and there are parallels to be drawn between the two goalkeepers’ bravado and alpha-dog shtick.

Despite the aforementioned Henderson and Pope being excellent alternatives in the England goal, Pickford likely retains a lot of credit with national team boss Gareth Southgate due to his stellar performances at the 2018 World Cup. It will be a different matter at club level, though, where Ancelotti will feel no such loyalty when taking the chance to flood the Everton squad with his own men in what will be his first summer transfer window at Goodison Park.

At 26, Pickford is young enough to recover from this downturn. It is widely accepted that goalkeepers peak later than outfield players, so it is even possible that his best days are ahead of him. But patience is wearing thin.