Keeping ahead of the curve: The best value outright bets for the forthcoming Premier League season

WITH this summer’s transfer window still ajar for a whole month, it is tempting to hold back from making any sweeping predictions for the forthcoming Premier League season.

After all, at any given moment on any given day, any given player might sign for any given club and the picture could change quite dramatically. A promoted side might source a proven goal-scorer tomorrow and see their survival hopes boosted. A club with realistic title aspirations could solve a long-standing problem area at a stroke. A team with designs on finishing in the top four might lose their most important player and be significantly weakened as a consequence. Yes, that last one alludes to Tottenham and Harry Kane.

Surely then, amidst so much uncertainty it is better to keep your powder dry for the time being? To wait and see what develops, then head into the outright markets for 2021/22 once fully armed with the facts?

There is clearly some logic to this: it can even be viewed as the safe play, and yet there is a strong counterargument that can be made, one that directly contradicts it.

Because amidst so much ambiguity perhaps now is precisely when to strike, to fully capitalize on odds that are decidedly generous as they reflect that ambiguity. And furthermore, if we’re really getting down to brass tacks, how much difference does a transfer here and there make anyway?

Take Chelsea as a prime example. Presently the Blues are in the hunt for a marquee striker, with Erling Haaland firmly in their sights if a thousand and one articles are to be believed. Should they pull off the complicated and extraordinarily expensive deal we can expect Chelsea’s title odds to fall as a side that has lost only five times during Thomas Tuchel’s six-month reign despite being hardly ruthless up front is considerably emboldened by the Norwegian phenomenon. Add his formidable goal-threat to this Chelsea side and what a prospect they would be.

Yet it is not flippancy to point out that Manchester City did quite well last term minus – for the most part – their own prolific focal point in Sergo Aguero and the days of successful teams needing that 20+ centre-forward perhaps are on the wane. It is not flippancy either to highlight that Chelsea have beaten City three times in recent months or that a team transformed under the German coach from January on will only benefit from a pre-season under his charge. It is not fanciful to suggest that Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech will each greatly improve after a season acclimatizing to English football while in Pulisic and Havertz – who is set to explode this year – Chelsea already possess a fearsome array of firepower.

Should you believe that Tuchel’s side are best positioned to challenge City for the title in the months to come, and maybe even make it a two-horse race, then consider this. Manchester City are presently 7/10 to retain their crown which is a good, solid, sensible bet. Chelsea, meanwhile, their likeliest competitor, are 5/1. That’s outstanding value.

They won’t stay at fives for long and that’s especially true given their tough opening schedule that sees them travel to Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs then host Manchester City and all before September is out. If Chelsea lose two or three of these games their odds will widen but not substantially so. If they get off to a flyer however, against top six rivals, we will be reminiscing about that 5/1 price within a matter of weeks. Get on it now.

Turning our attention to the top goalscorer market it hardly surprises to see Harry Kane head the field and to an extent it barely matters who he turns out for this season because he will be in the reckoning regardless. Only to an extent though.

Because it is all-too-easy to imagine a player who has scored 142 goals in his last 200 Premier League appearances sharpening even this astonishing hit-rate should his move to Manchester City come off, feasting on the countless chances Guardiola’s side routinely create only to usually spurn. Meaning should Kane head north his 4/1 odds will be instantly shaved.

Staying with the goalscorers and Kane there is another consideration to factor in should he depart the capital.

Raheem Sterling suffered a notable dip in form throughout the latter half of last season but looked a very different proposition at the Euros. This was partly due to representing his country of course but it was also because he very clearly adores playing off Kane, with the duo consistently displaying a synchronicity that had led to both scoring and assisting in great numbers on the international stage.

 

Is Harry Kane coming to City? This and other possible transfers explored for @unibet https://t.co/b2WWbNaMhW

— Stephen Tudor (@SteTudor123) July 13, 2021

 

It should not be downplayed how difficult it will be for Sterling to attain the Golden Boot. His most productive league campaign amounted to 20 goals while the average figure reached by the last ten Golden Boot recipients is 26.7. Yet add Kane into the equation and Sterling’s 11/1 odds look tempting, certainly enough to preempt the possibility of this partnership happening and flourishing.  

Some anticipation and guesswork is also required when assessing the ‘Next Premier League manager to leave’ market because it stands to reason that odds will tighten once one or two sides start badly, immediately putting their coach under pressure.

History helps here because in the past ten years only once has a club been the first to pull the trigger when residing beyond the bottom five league places. That was Chelsea in 2012, replacing Roberto Di Matteo with Rafa Benitez, an early chop and change that was followed just three days later by QPR sacking Mark Hughes with the Hoops rock-bottom.

Naturally, it isn’t a shock to learn that the first clubs to seek out a new manager are the ones at the wrong end of the table but still, it’s good to have this confirmed while what is notable is that only twice have these clubs been recently promoted. This brings to mind the shock that radiated across football last year when Slaven Bilic was dismissed just six months after guiding West Brom to the top-flight.

So, ideally what we’re looking for here, is a club that hasn’t just got promoted – ruling out Brentford, Norwich and Watford – who we predict will struggle from the off. Burnley maybe? No, Sean Dyche’s position is safe no matter what at Turf Moor. What about Bruno Lage at Wolves, untried and unfamiliar with the Premier League, taking on a project that showed distinct signs of creaking last term?

Lage is 16/1 to leave his job ahead of his top-flight peers. Expect those odds to tumble quick if results go against Wanderers.