Manchester derby betting tips: City no longer the noisiest in this meeting of equals

LAST Sunday at the Etihad had Manchester City back to their sparkling best after a brief spell of mixed performances.

Either side of the World Cup the reigning league champions looked fresh out of solutions when faced with stubborn defences, dropping points as a consequence, and worse was to follow at Stamford Bridge last Thursday because when the Blues start to look ordinary Pep Guardiola tends to over-think matters.

Subsequently, Joao Cancelo was stationed on the right flank and Phil Foden was deployed as a wing-back.

A confusing formation inevitably led to a confusing display, leading several wags on Twitter to evoke the famous Eric Morecombe line. That this was the right line-up, just not necessarily in the right order.

A reset at half-time revitalised the visitors and that continued into the weekend when Chelsea were again the opponents, this time in the FA Cup.

For the first time in a good while, City were sharp and inventive, doing all the things they excel at, traits that can make them unplayable. Full-backs pressed high out of possession, and underlapped and overlapped when going forward. Players were brave enough to hug the touchline while control was maintained centrally throughout. Granted, Chelsea were exceptionally poor, but this was still a stylish return to form, just in time for a Manchester derby.

Take a punt on a goal being scored in both halves this Saturday at 1.50

What was particularly pertinent however about this rediscovery of self was that it transpired minus Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne, both rested for the occasion. Does that suggest therefore that these two blue behemoths have been part of the problem for City of late?

Of course, it would be ridiculous to claim that any side would be better off without a forward who has scored every 63 minutes this season, smashing records galore, not to mention an unparalleled creative who has already racked up double figures for assists this term.

😬 Chelsea have only created 𝟯 more big chances (20) than Kevin De Bruyne (17) alone this season in the Premier League pic.twitter.com/WySN6iwwys

— WhoScored (@WhoScored) January 5, 2023

Yet the fact remains that the brilliant Belgian has had some stinkers since returning from Qatar. As for Haaland, though he scores for fun, his presence undeniably has a mitigating impact on City’s overall offensive shape.

It will be intriguing then to note if a sharp and inventive Manchester City are still in evidence at Old Trafford, with the duo reinstalled. Or whether – just for the present at least – Guardiola’s side are still capable of playing all the best notes, just not necessarily with their best players.

Julian Alvarez is a tempting shout at 2.55 to score anytime but Bernardo Silva is better value at 6.10. The Portuguese schemer has scored all three of his previous derby goals at Old Trafford

There is another factor that comes to mind ahead of the 189th meeting between the reds and blues of Manchester, and it’s one that surpasses in importance the above consideration, even if both are sort of related.

Because for the first time in a good, good while Manchester United face their arch-neighbours as not overtly the weaker team.

As recently as last October, in Erik Ten Hag’s eighth league game in charge, City pulverized a team in transition 6-3, with only complacent negligence late in the game keeping the score-line even the slightest bit respectable. The last time Guardiola’s men travelled across town meanwhile, they indulged in an exhibition of supremacy, restricting their hosts to just one shot on target, and that a speculative effort. It felt like men against lost boys for the full ninety.

But now, five and a bit months into Ten Hag’s tenure, United are flying. Indeed, since that humbling 6-3 loss they have been bested only once in 17 across all competitions, keeping 10 clean sheets on route.

It’s a transformation founded on a well-organized back-line and perhaps the best illustration of this is the single goal conceded during the three games that’s seen Luke Shaw reimagined as a centre-back, an observation incidentally that is no reflection on Shaw who has been excellent this past year.

But when a system continues to operate smoothly even when deprived of specialists, that reveals a team is being excellently coached. And system trumping individuals is something United have woefully strayed from for ages.

Another positive they’ve long been crying out for is a class act in midfield, capable of running the show and they certainly possess that now in Casemiro, the Brazilian routinely influential for the Reds.

Up front, meanwhile, a rejuvenated Marcus Rashford has scored five in five, with three assists for good measure. Six of his seven in 2022/23 by the way have been converted at Old Trafford.

140 – Marcus Rashford is averaging a goal every 140 minutes under Erik ten Hag; his best minutes-per-goal ratio under any Manchester United manager in his career (13 goals in 1821 minutes). Confidence. pic.twitter.com/MxchUJIzLl

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 10, 2023

A bet builder backing BTTS, Rashford to score, and over 2.5 goals offers up 5.30

When viewed as a whole, United appear to be in remarkably good shape right now, an improvement largely explained by having a remarkably good shape, and what should give City fans further palpitations going into this crunch clash are the seven goals scored via counter-attacks.

In that regard no other team comes close and even during the grim days under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer – when United punched up sometimes in derby games – allowing City to pass themselves out before pouncing on mistakes proved to be a rewarding strategy. Don’t discount that happening again on Saturday in this meeting of equals.

United have conceded 14 of their 22 this term in the first half. City have conceded 11 of their 16 in the second. Go for City/Draw at 14.00