Opta Bet Builder | MD12: The science of winning

WITH England securing promotion the Nations League is done and dusted for a while, meaning we return to the unpredictability and chaos of the Premier League.

Victory away at Leicester would see Chelsea tighten their grip on third place, just a point behind Man City, who themselves face a tough test against their old nemesis, Spurs, in the teatime clash. Sandwiched in between, five further games make up Saturday’s tasty treat, with Arsenal welcoming the resurgent Nottingham Forest really whetting the palate.

Sunday sees both Liverpool and Man United in action, with the newly-appointed Rúben Amorim making his managerial debut for The Red Devils. Can he harvest three points against The Tractor Boys?

Last matchday weekend saw plenty of value punts hit home and proved to be a boon for acca and bet builder lovers. More of the same again this weekend?

The guys from OPTA have returned with their prime picks for this weekend’s games. scouring their records and using their incredible database of facts and stats to determine the best bets. Will they net a winner or two this time round?

Check out this week’s best bets!

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Leicester v Chelsea

Cole Palmer has had 3+ shots in five of his last six Premier League appearances (25 in total), averaging 4.2 shots, whilehe’s been directly involved in 10 goals in just five Premier League appearances against promoted sides for Chelsea (6 goals, 4 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 43 minutes in such matches.

 

Man City v Tottenham

There’s been 56 goals across the last 13 Premier League games at the Etihad between Manchester City and Tottenham, an average of 4.3 per game. Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against Man City, while under Pep Guardiola (since 2016-17), Manchester City have lost more Premier League games (6) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham Hotspur than they have vs any other opponent.

 

Ipswich v Man United

Manchester United have won 17 of their last 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents (D2) since a 4-1 loss at Watford in November 2021. Away from home, they have won their last nine league games at promoted sides.

 

Southampton v Liverpool

Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – 8 goals, 6 assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (7 goals, 4 assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton, while Liverpool have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Southampton (D1 L1), scoring 2+ goals in 11 of those matches.

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