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Premier League tips – Saturday, Nov 28: Sterling’s return to inspire a Man City victory, Everton to get the better of Leeds

November 25, 2020

It's one of those 'All the best Premier League games are on Sunday' weekends again, but don't let that put you off perusing the schedule for Saturday.

We've got Liverpool looking to build on their fantastic win over Leicester when they travel to Brighton, Man City hoping for any sort of victory against Brighton, and two different types of treats for neutrals as dangerous but reckless Everton host dangerous but reckless Leeds, and the top flight's only winless sides, West Brom and Sheffield United, square off at the Hawthorns. And, of course, there is plenty of value to be had.

 

Brighton vs Liverpool | Saturday November 28, 12:30
 

After dominating but losing most matches this season, Brighton reversed the trend at Aston Villa, claiming a 2-1 win courtesy of some poor finishing from Villa, and one particularly helpful VAR intervention. The Seagulls have been impressive on the road of late, losing just two of their last 12, but with only three of their last 18 points being won at the Amex, there's a clear weakness for Liverpool to exploit on Saturday.

Only Chelsea (22) have scored more Premier League goals than Liverpool (21) this season. As the Reds welcome back Mo Salah this weekend, the signs are ominous for Brighton. Over their last nine meetings with the Seagulls, Liverpool have racked up a whopping 27 goals while conceding over seven. Salah has eight of those goals, with six assists thrown in for good measure, while new signing Diogo Jota bagged a brace at the Amex for Wolves last season.

Oddly, Liverpool have scored the most first half goals (12) and conceded the most first half goals (11) this season. The Leicester game however suggested the latter stat is more of an anomaly than an indicator. Liverpool swept into an early lead, doubled it and held the then Premier League leaders at arm's length. Theoretically, at the Amex, it should be even easier to do that against Brighton.

Match odds: Brighton (24/5) Draw (13/4) Liverpool (3/5)
Correct score: Brighton 1-3 Liverpool (10/1)
Tip: HT Liverpool, FT Liverpool (13/10)
 

Afford

Man City vs Burnley | Saturday November 28, 15:00
 

Man City can become only the second side in English football history (after Notts County) to beat the same opponents 5-0 in four straight home games, however, Pep Guardiola will be more concerned about returning to winning ways and getting his side functioning properly after a poor start to the season. Per game, Man City are averaging 15.7 shots, 5.3 on target, in the Premier League this season, with a shot conversion of just 8% – all the lowest totals they've managed under Guardiola.

Burnley are not exactly firing on all cylinders this season themselves but they will arrive at the Etihad at their most confident this season having beaten Crystal Palace to nil to get their first win of the campaign last time out. Sean Dyche is also likely to have been encouraged by the success Tottenham had packing their defence against City last week, and will also surely opt to play on the counter.

Riyad Mahrez tends to fare well against Burnley, with four goals in his last three league appearances, and he should be joined in City's attack by the fit again Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden. Sergio Aguero may well appear from the bench, but Guardiola talked down his chances of a start this weekend. City should win this one, but they'll be far from their free-flowing best.

Match odds: Man City (1/6) Draw (7/1) Burnley (16/1)
Correct score: Man City 2-0 Burnley (11/2)
Tip: Wincast – Raheem Sterling to score any time and Man City to win (21/20)

Everton vs Leeds | Saturday November 28, 17:30
 

Everton were up to their old tricks defensively at Fulham last weekend, making it six straight games they've conceded at least two goals, but the benefit of having Richarlison back from suspension was clear. The Brazilian may have squandered several great chances to add to his solitary league goal this season, but after setting up Everton's opener 42 seconds in, and vacating the space to facilitate two simple assists for Lucas Digne, Richarlison had the Toffees back to their early season form in the first half.

Leeds did everything but score against Arsenal, and after captain Kalvin Phillips not only slotted back in but also shook off an injury which at first seemed serious, they have plenty of cause for optimism ahead of this trip. Patrick Bamford blew a number of chances, as he tends to do at Elland Road, but on the road, he's a different animal. In fact, score on Saturday and he'll become only the second player – after Thierry Henry – to score in a Premier League side's first five away games.

Only Les Ferdinand, with 13 goals for Newcastle 1995/96, has scored more goals in the first 10 matches of a Premier League season than Dominic Calvert-Lewin (nine) and the Everton man has a game to spare. He's unlikely to threaten Sir Les' record, but I think he'll score again, and so too Richarlison. And with Mason Holgate likely to come in for the struggling Yerry Mina, an improved defensive performance is likely.

Match odds: Everton (19/20) Draw (14/5) Leeds (14/5)
Correct score: Everton 3-1 Leeds (12/1)
Tip: Match multi – Calvert-Lewin to score, Richarlison to score (4/1)

 

West Brom vs Sheffield United | Saturday November 28, 20:00
 

A draw here will see both sides reach 10 games without a win under their belts – it would be only the third time in Premier League history this has happened to two clubs (after 2012/13 and 2018/19). A quick scan of some other pertinent statistics suggests this might well be on the cards. No team have conceded more than West Brom (18) this season, but then no side has scored fewer than Sheff Utd (four). The Baggies seem likely to concede plenty of chances, but the Blades seem very unlikely to convert them.

West Brom came away from Old Trafford last week feeling as if they'd lost 1-0 to VAR rather than Man Utd (insert your own 'What's the difference?' quips here), and to be honest, they did. It's not the first time they've suffered at the officials' hands either with Slaven Bilic disgracefully sent off for asking to speak to Mike Dean at half-time at Everton. Bilic will hope he can channel that growing frustration into a first win, and in that regard, the Blades are the perfect Premier League opponents at present.

They may have improved slightly last time out but West Ham found it easy to both forge ahead and control the game. As the clock ticked down, and the tension ramped up, Sheff Utd… just kept passing it between their midfield and defence. There's not much between these sides just now, but I'll take the side that actually attacks any day.

Match odds: West Brom (8/5) Draw (11/5) Sheff Utd (29/20)
Correct score: West Brom 1-0 Sheff Utd (6/1)
Tip: West Brom to win to nil (3/1)

Click here to read Premier League betting tips for Sunday November 29, 2020
 

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