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Premier League tips – Saturday, Nov 7: Easy wins for Chelsea and West Ham, draws at Goodison and Selhurst Park

November 4, 2020

WE have just one weekend of Premier League action before the dreaded international break returns to combine both the stupefying danger of professional athletes flying around the world during a pandemic with the inevitable tedium of the actual football. Oh joy! You've been warned now, so there's absolutely no excuse for not making the most of this weekend's football. This Saturday's tips start with the game of the day at Goodison Park.
 

Everton vs Man Utd | Saturday November 7, 12:30
 

The wheels have come off for Everton. After surviving the first eight matches of the 2020/21 season without defeat, the Toffees are staring down the barrel of a third in succession, something no Carlo Ancelotti side has experienced since 2005! Richarlison completes his three-game suspension which means more disruption for Everton's attack but the creative ranks will at least be boosted by the returns of James Rodriguez and Lucas Digne.

Man Utd are yet to win at Old Trafford in the Premier League this season, but they're also yet to drop points away from home. In fact, the Red Devils have won each of their last six Premier League away games, scoring 17 goals, keeping four clean sheets, and conceding just three in the process. No side has more Premier League away wins at a specific venue than United at Goodison Park (16, tied with United's 16 at Villa Park).

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side will be without Alex Telles who sits this one out after a positive coronavirus test presumably leaving Luke Shaw to contend with Rodriguez. That's got to be viewed as the Toffees' best route to goal. If Rodriguez and Digne can supply Premier League joint-top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin – who scored the opener in this fixture last season – the Blues could be in business, but they have, let's not forget, conceded two goals in each of their last four Premier League matches. Great attacks and ropy defences, I fancy a score draw here.

Match odds: Everton (19/10) Draw (5/2) Man Utd (7/5)
Correct score: Everton 2-2 Man Utd (23/4)
Tip: Match multi – Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (Evens)
 

Crystal Palace vs Leeds | Saturday November 7, 15:00
 

If this one goes to form, it'll be a tale of defence versus attack. Crystal Palace have had the fewest shots in the Premier League this season (57) while only Liverpool (123) have had more than Leeds (96). However, Marcelo Bielsa will do well to pay heed to Leeds' last performance where they were torn apart on the counter-attack by Leicester. There aren't many sides who can rival Leicester's counter-attacking prowess, but Palace, with Wilf Zaha, Jordan Ayew, and Andros Townsend, are certainly one of them.

Zaha has already eclipsed last year's admittedly poor total of four goals in 38 matches with five goals this term. The resultant seven points makes Zaha's goals more valuable than any other player in 2020/21. He's 41/20 to score any time while Leeds' Patrick Bamford, who has six league goals to his name this season, is 17/10, with a 7/1 Match Multi for both men to score.

I expect both teams to play slightly within themselves after poor recent defeats, and the tighter the game, the greater chance for a Palace victory. But seeing as they've won just one of their last seven home games in the Premier League, and have to go back over a year for the last time they won a home game by more than one goal, I'm opting for the draw here.

Match odds: Crystal Palace (41/20) Draw (47/20) Leeds (11/8)
Correct score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Leeds (21/4)
Tip: Draw and both teams to score (17/5)

Chelsea vs Sheffield United | Saturday November 8, 17:30
 

In July, Sheff Utd comfortably beat Chelsea 3-0 to move into the top six of the Premier League. Since then, the Blades have claimed just one point of the next 30 available. In fact, Utd scored more goals from open play in that game (three) than they have in the ensuing 10 matches (two). If that wasn't bad enough, Frank Lampard has finally found some defensive solidity thanks chiefly to Edouard Mendy's arrival.

Mendy conceded against Spurs on his debut in the Carabao Cup, but five games later, that remains his only concession in a Chelsea shirt. The Senegalese stopper can become only the fourth keeper in Premier League history to keep a clean sheet in his first four matches after Alex Manninger, Pepe Reina and Anders Lindegaard. With N'Golo Kante fit again, and new signings Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner grabbing two goals and an assist each in the last two games, the Blues are really firing on all cylinders just now.

Sheff Utd have taken 59 shots so far this season and scored with just three of them, two of which were penalties. That's a 5.1% conversion rate – the Premier League's worst this season with the narrow exception of Burnley (5%). Chelsea on the other hand boast the third best conversion rate with 18.8%. This seems like a nailed-on home win, so why not add in an element of irony and back the Blues to completely reverse July's shock defeat.

Match odds: Chelsea (4/11) Draw (4/1) Sheff Utd (15/2)
Correct score: Chelsea 3-0 Sheff Utd (8/1)
Tip: Chelsea -1 handicap (Evens)
 

West Ham vs Fulham | Saturday November 8, 20:00
 

West Ham competed well at Anfield and could have claimed a point had talisman Michail Antonio not missed out with injury. His replacement, Sebastian Haller, completed just six passes and had 15 touches overall in one of the most anonymous performances of the season. Don't be surprised if he's back on the bench for this one, with Andriy Yarmolenko and Jarrod Bowen ready to step up.

Fulham are coming off their first victory back in the big time, a comfortable 2-0 win over West Brom to climb out of the bottom three. The Cottagers have gone 16 London derbies without a win however (one draw, 15 losses) with the current run of 12 straight defeats the worst ever run in top-flight history. They've shipped three on each of their last three away games at West Ham.

A 2-2 draw with Man Utd in 2014 was the only occasion a side managed by Moyes has failed to win a home game against Fulham, in 13 attempts, while the Hammers' 59% win ratio of their West London rivals is their highest win ratio against any opponent they've faced at least 10 times. Coming into this game on the back of a four-game unbeaten run at home in which 13 goals have been scored and just one conceded, expect West Ham to get back on track immediately with a win here.

Match odds: West Ham (5/6) Draw (14/5) Fulham (16/5)
Correct score: West Ham 2-0 Fulham (8/1)
Tip: Match multi – West Ham to win and under 4.5 goals (23/20)
 

Multiples
 

Results four-fold: Everton/ Man Utd Draw, Crystal Palace/ Leeds draw, Chelsea, West Ham – 29/1
Tip four-fold: Everton/ Man Utd – BTTS and over 2.5 goals, Crystal Palace/ Leeds – Draw and BTTS, Chelsea -1 handicap, West Ham to win and under 4.5 goals – 35/1
Double: Everton/ Man Utd Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, Chelsea -1 handicap – 3/1

Click here to read Premier League betting tips for Sunday November 8, 2020