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Premier League tips – Sunday November 1: Tottenham to get their first home win, another bore draw at Old Trafford

October 28, 2020

THE centre-piece of Sunday's action is undoubtedly Arsenal trip to Old Trafford but with Aston Villa hosting Southampton, Newcastle facing Everton and Brighton facing a Tottenham side yet to win on their own patch in the league this season, it's all set to be a thoroughly decent day of football throughout.

Can Aston Villa and Everton bounce back? Will Man Utd and Arsenal's clash be any better than last week's 0-0 with Chelsea? Spoiler alert: a bit. And can Spurs finally get that elusive first home win? Here are you Premier League tips for this Sunday.
 

Aston Villa vs Southampton | Sunday November 1, 14:00
 

Aston Villa's 100% record was blown to smithereens as Leeds triumphed 3-0 at Villa Park, but Dean Smith's side still go into this weekend with the Premier League's best defence having conceded just five goals in five games. Southampton on the other hand looked fantastic when inflicting league leaders Everton's first defeat last Sunday. Ralph Hassenhuttl's side have now lost just two of their last 13 Premier League matches, and their 12 Premier League wins in 2020 are eclipsed only by Liverpool (18) and Man City (15).

What will please Hasenhuttl most about that win is the fact it was at home where Saints have struggled during his tenure. Away from home, they're a different beast which spells trouble for the Villans. Southampton have lost just three of their last 14 away games in the league, winning eight of them – a run that started last December with a 3-1 win at Villa Park.

Che Adams has finally settled for Saints. After going 24 matches without scoring for the club, he now has six goals in his last 12 Premier League matches, including goals in both of the last two games. Combining Adams' output with Danny Ings', Southampton's strikeforce has six goals and four assists in Saints' last five outings. That cutting edge will make the difference on Sunday.

Match odds: Aston Villa (29/20) Draw (13/5) Southampton (9/5)
Correct score: Aston Villa 1-2 Southampton (17/2)
Tip: Wincast – Ings to score and Southampton to win (29/10)
 

Newcastle United vs Everton | Sunday November 1, 16:30
 

One point from two games has derailed Everton's promising start, and with the left side of Carlo Ancelotti's regular starting XI suspended as Richarlison and Lucas Digne sit this one out, a possible blip against Southampton coudl descend into a bad run of form. Alex Iwobi missed his chance to impress against Saints so he'll likely be replaced by the promising Anthony Gordon or Bernard, while Niels Nkounkou who has seriously caught the eye in the Toffees' run to the Carabao Cup quarter-finals this year, will make his first Premier League start.

Newcastle claimed a good point last time out at Wolves, but it's their home form that will concern Steve Bruce. The Mapgies have won just three of their last 13 matches at St James' Park with four of their last five home games ending in defeat. Newcastle have also managed just two wins in their last 15 league meetings with Everton – both 3-2 wins (2014 and 2019). The Blues have six wins in their last eight trips to Tyneside.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin failed to score for Everton for the first time this season against Southampton, but he has more Premier League goals against Newcastle (four) than he does against any other opponent. If, as expected, James Rodriguez is passed fit, and Jonjoe Kenny returns to shore up the right hand side, back Everton to get back on track.

Match odds: Newcastle (3/1) Draw (49/20) Everton (Evens)
Correct score: Newcastle 1-2 Everton (7/1)
Tip: Wincast – Calvert-Lewin to score and Everton to win (21/10)
 

 

Man Utd vs Arsenal | Sunday November 1, 16:30
 

Man Utd need a win here to avoid going four home games without one at the start of a season for the first time since 1972/73. That's much easier said than done against an Arsenal side who are now four league games unbeaten against the Red Devils – their longest such run since 1992. The Gunners have won two of the last three clashes between the sides, as many as they had in the previous 15. Mikel Arteta can become only the second Arsenal manager to win his first two matches against Man Utd, following Herbert Chapman in 1925/26.

However, it's clear Arsenal are not attacking with any kind of conviction at present. 8.8 shots per game in 2019/20 is the Gunners' lowest total since 1997/98 while 1.3 goals per game is their lowest since 1995/96. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has also gone five league games without a goal for the first time in his Arsenal career. Arteta clearly has no time for Mesut Ozil as a source of creativity at the moment – he needs to find an adequate replacement soon. 

The midweek action could well have an impact on this fixture however with Man Utd welcoming 2019/20 Champions League semi-finalists RB Leipzig for arguably the key fixture in their group stage schedule, while Arteta's side welcome Dundalk for a presumably more straight-forward encounter. That should be advantage Arsenal, but given their struggles in front of goal, I'm predicting it contributes to a stodgy, fatigued clash and ultimately a draw. A slightly better spectacle than Man Utd vs Chelsea… but not by much.

Match odds: Man Utd (23/20) Draw (13/5) Arsenal (47/20)
Correct score: Man Utd 1-1 Arsenal (23/4)
Tip: Penalty kick to be awarded (8/5)
 

Tottenham vs Brighton | Sunday November 1, 19:15
 

Is everything coming together for Tottenham and Jose Mourinho? Since losing on opening day to Everton, Spurs have won eight of the next 10 games with points only being dropped in the last few seconds against Newcastle and West Ham. That's a serious problem though – Tottenham are yet to win a home game in the Premier League this season due to their tendency to let up and sit back in matches. That must be addressed this weekend.

Brighton are no slouches on the road. The Seagulls' October defeat at Goodison Park was their only away defeat in the last 10, but they're still conceding too many and scoring too few.  Only Fulham (362) have trailed for more minutes than Brighton (241) this season while the inverse is true for their opponents, only Crystal Palace (313) have led for longer than Spurs (294). 

If Harry Kane scores twice this weekend, he will match Sergio Aguero's scoring rate of 150 Premier League goals in 217 games (second only to Alan Shearer who did it in 212). With the England captain also needing two to reach 200 in all competitions for Spurs, that seems worth backing given he's playing out of his skin at the moment. Tottenham have been poor at home this season – this is finally the weekend they get it right, and Kane, of course, will be at the centre of that.

Match odds: Tottenham (8/13) Draw (16/5) Brighton (22/5)
Correct score: Tottenham 4-1 Brighton (20/1)
Tip: Match multi – Tottenham to win, Kane to score at least two goals (27/5)

 

Four-folds
 

Result four-fold: Southampton, Everton, Draw (Man Utd vs Arsenal), Tottenham – 30/1
Correct score four-fold: Aston Villa 1-2 Southampton, Newastle 1-2 Everton, Man Utd 1-1 Arsenal, Tottenham 4-1 Brighton – 10,000/1
Tip four-fold: Wincast – Ings to score and Southampton to win, Wincast – Calvert-Lewin to score and Everton to win, Penalty kick to be awarded in Man Utd vs Arsenal, Match multi – Tottenham to win, Kane to score at least two goals – 200/1
 

Click here to read Premier League betting tips for Saturday October 30, 2020