Arsenal v Liverpool betting tips: Visitors fancied to prevail in title six-pointer

LET’S dispense with any doubt and discard all of the caveats that have so far accompanied the first few months of Liverpool’s post-Klopp era.

The Reds are title contenders this term for sure. They’re the real deal. To lean into Andy Townsend parlance, they will be ‘there or thereabouts’ come May.

The same of course can be said of Arsenal, for all that it’s becoming fashionable to portray them as emotionally fragile and ill-disciplined.

Yes, three red cards in their opening eight league fixtures is a legitimate talking point and a problem that needs addressing. But in the great scheme of things it’s a MacGuffin compared to their proven ability to string together multiple games undefeated.

Add Manchester City into the mix then and a probable three-way title scrap awaits, a truth that heightens the importance of this Sunday’s clash far beyond how it’s presently being painted. As the most stringent test yet of Liverpool’s title credentials. As an opportunity for Arsenal to end a game with eleven players on the pitch.

This is a top-of-the-table six pointer that could go some way to defining the next chapter in English football’s history.

And so, aptly, we first turn to the past, though it has to be said there is not a lot to see there, save for the fact that there are typically lots of goals in this fixture, and – unsurprisingly – the team that goes into each clash in the best shape tends to win out.

The last eight times these sides have met in North London has produced a bumper four goals per 90, while Arsenal have prevailed three times, so have Liverpool, with two contests drawn.

Back over 2.5 goals this Sunday at 4/5

Much more revealing is what has been served up to us this season, with the Gunners starting brightly as they’ve made a habit of in recent years.

Winning three of their first four, all to nil, Mikel Arteta’s men then travelled to the Etihad, the scene of many a humbling experience for them. But on this occasion they stood tall, kept their shoulders back, and forged a hard-fought draw, this despite being a man shy for 45 minutes and more.

There then followed two vibrant victories at home, with Saka, Trossard, and Havertz all inventively impactful. He may lack the numbers of the other two but Leandro Trossard’s record versus Liverpool is worth noting incidentally, with six goals in six starts for Brighton and Arsenal.

Which brings us to the debacle at Bournemouth, a blip very possibly but one that bleeds into this weekend. The suspended Wiliam Saliba is a huge loss for the hosts, and with Riccardo Calafiori also out, and Bukayo Saka 50/50 at best, key absences could potentially sway the outcome of this seismic match-up in Liverpool’s favour.

With both teams fancied to score, Trossard is a generous 33/10 to net anytime versus the Reds

The visitors, for their part, only have a couple of injury concerns, though the form of Caoimhin Kelleher in nets has nullified one of them. A more pressing matter is Diogo Jota exiting halfway through the first half against Chelsea but even here there is a consolation. His replacement, Darwin Nunez won nine ground and aerial duels combined in the space of an hour and led the line impeccably.

As for Liverpool’s season overall it amounts to a catalogue of positives, with Arne Slot’s retention of so many of his predecessor’s ways, but with an emphasis on control, bringing instant rewards.

▪️ Victory over Chelsea at Anfield ▪️ Top of the league in October ▪️ Wild touchline reaction

Slot keeping up Klopp's traditions at Liverpool 🔴 pic.twitter.com/mSqcOdZq1k

— B/R Football (@brfootball) October 21, 2024

Nigh-on impenetrable at the back, Liverpool have conceded a mere 0.4 goals per 90 to this juncture, while up front their 16.0 xG is the second best in the league. They have created the most big chances (31) and kept the most clean sheets (5). From back to front, this is a team that has emerged complete and highly competitive when many were anticipating adjustments to take an early toll.

Moreover, it’s their proactive approach that has most impressed, something that is best illustrated by staying with xG.

Liverpool have been ahead in matches for the longest period in 2024/25 (60%) and trailed for the shortest percentage of their total game-time (just 3%) but it’s when contests have been level that we really see how their combination of solidity and ambition makes them a constant threat.

When drawing this season, their xG difference of +1.9 per 90 is the widest in the top-flight, hardly troubled in defence but forever probing for opportunities.

This translates to a high shot-count with Luis Diaz individually chipping in with 1.7 on target per 90. Over 0.5 SOT for the Colombian is a must at 10/13

With Diaz boasting 0.95 goals per 90 and Mo Salah already reaching double figures for Premier League goal involvements, this attacking intent is clearly paying dividends and with Liverpool in such fine form they are subsequently fancied to gain all three points at the Emirates.

Let’s not, however, succumb too much to the notion that Arsenal are currently weakened, and furthermore may be incapable of landing meaningful punches when encountering a supremely well-organised rearguard.

The Gunners have only failed to score once at home in 2024, averaging 2.9 goals per game elsewhere.

Go for corners too. Not only have both teams already broke the 50 barrier just eight games in, but there has been a healthy return in this fixture in recent seasons, with a total of nine commonplace.

Back BTTS and over 9.5 corners at 29/20