Ste Tudor | Arsenal v Man City betting tips: Rodri-less Blues may struggle in North London

HOW Manchester City’s Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante is perceived beyond the Etihad can loosely be compared to an undervalued housewife/husband.

When the Spanish fulcrum is doing Rodri things, he is admired for sure, but let’s face it, what he’s really doing is chores. A five yard square pass is the washing up. Dispossessing a player on the cusp of countering is the vacuuming.

It is telling that when another team’s midfield anchor has a blinder the younger element of that team’s fanbase are straight on social media claiming that player is Rodri’s superior.

But let’s say that one day the housewife/husband has had their fill of being taken for granted. They put down the duster mid-clean. They don’t make the kids’ lunches for school.

Instead, they up and temporarily leave, out into the world to get some much-needed me-time.

How quickly does that house begin to fall apart? How quickly before panic sets in, as tasks are hastily delegated but to little avail as the kids head to school in questionably whiffy shirts and someone is screaming blue murder from the bathroom because there is no toilet roll.

Since making his Premier League debut in 2019, City have lost five of the 15 games in which Rodri has been absent. That’s the same number of games lost from his last 67 appearances in blue.

The 27-year-old may primarily do rudimentary things, but he does them better than anyone else in world football. And within the convoluted, intricate, trophy-winning creation, conceived from Pep Guardiola’s genius, he is its everything.

Last weekend against Wolves, Guardiola tried to minimize the absence of his suspended everything by deploying Kovacic and Nunes in the middle, and though excuses can be made for both – with the Croatian still a little rusty after injury, and Nunes over-complicating in front of booing fans who last season cheered him – there was a distinct lack of penetration, City’s passing looking out-of-sorts for the most part.

Subsequently, Nunes was subbed at the break and to make matters worse, on the hour-mark, the former was replaced by Kalvin Phillips who is a Manchester City player in the same way a competition winner being shown around NASA is an astronaut.

It cannot be underestimated how seismic a loss Rodri is for the Blues this Sunday.

Factor in too, Kevin De Bruyne’s lengthy rehabilitation – a player so often the star of this fixture, with 13 goal involvements – and undoubtedly Mikel Arteta will seek to capitalize on some uncharacteristic ordinariness ahead of City’s back-line at the Emirates. Control will be sought in the middle of the park and in Declan Rice and Thomas Partey – should the latter be passed fit – they have precisely the duo to boss proceedings.

Furthermore, having coached under the Catalan grandmaster for three years, Arteta is innately aware of just how important control is to City’s mandate, especially away from home. It puts them in charge of the narrative and allows them to play at a rhythm of their liking.

Only here’s a twist, one we witnessed last term in the corresponding clash, as the champions elect were dismantled by the actual champions.

Anticipating that his former assistant would prioritise possession, Guardiola went the other way and played on the counter. By the end of an enthralling encounter that was pretty even in the first half but had City dominate thereafter, the Gunners boasted 64% of the possession but still managed to lose 3-1. They accrued just a single shot on target throughout to the visitors’ six.

Will a similar strategy be deployed therefore at the weekend? Certainly without the brilliant De Bruyne marauding forward and wreaking havoc it would lose a lot of impact but of course in the final third, City still possess an array of talent to seriously hurt their hosts.

Out wide, Jeremy Doku has immediately hit the ground running on signing from Rennes, the tricky Belgian averaging 3.5 successful dribbles per 90. Julian Alvarez is settling into his new, deeper role well. Last winter’s World Cup winner has six goal involvements in seven.

Then there’s Erling Haaland, naturally, who scored in both league meetings last season, assisting twice for good measure. Should he be given better service than at Wolves, the Striking Viking can absolutely take full advantage of an Arsenal rearguard that reserves their clean sheets for away from North London. At the Emirates they have kept just two in 15.

For the record, Haaland has notched every 77.5 minutes in 2023/24.

Yet for all that – and it is substantial – it is still all-too-easy to picture Martin Odegaard darting into pockets of space, space that would usually be inhabited by a covering Rodri. Space that will allow the artful schemer to pick the right pass for ex-City star Gabby Jesus who scored midweek and is returning to form and fitness.

It is also possibly pertinent that Arsenal have only been behind for 70 minutes this season.

The Gunners last beat City in the league way back in 2015. This feels like their best chance to put that right for quite some time.

Ste’s Fivefold

“Ooooone-huuuundred-and-eightiiiiie!”

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