Ste Tudor | FA Cup semi-final betting tips: An all-Manchester final denied us as Seagulls take flight

ON paper, and by all reasonable logic, Sheffield United don’t have a prayer this Saturday as they take on a Manchester City machine that is producing goals left, right and centre.

Since coming unstuck in North London way back in early February, Pep Guardiola’s revised creation are unbeaten in 14 and are clearly thriving from a tweaked set-up that is designed to get the best out of Erling Haaland, and all while maintaining their fluid, remorseless means of attack.

In their last six outings, the treble-chasers have scored 27 times, a formidable haul that includes one-sided thrashings of Liverpool and Leipzig, and a redoubtable deconstruction of Bayern Munich. Last weekend, their besting of Leicester saw them go through the motions in the same mechanical manner the rest of us complete necessary chores. It was a footballing version of doing the washing up.

Add in Haaland’s ridiculous prolificacy, plus the fact that the Blades are minus their City loanees James McAtee and Tommy Doyle – the latter one of the best performers in the Championship in 2022/23 – and realistically there is only going to be one winner at Wembley. You just hope it’s competitive, and thankfully it likely will be.

That’s because an odd thing tends to occur at this juncture of the season concerning the Blues, and it involves Guardiola deploying a seriously weakened side in a FA Cup semi-final.

He’s done it three years running now, a strategy that has proven costly each time and unquestionably as a season narrows to a series of must-wins, it is this fixture the Catalan considers the most dispensable.

Three years ago, a back-line woefully short of minutes was picked apart by Arsenal. Two years ago, Chelsea capitalized on a sweeping eight changes. Last year, thousands of fans regretted making the long journey to the capital on seeing the unfamiliar line-up, with Liverpool taking full advantage.

With a seismic title-bout against the Gunners just around the corner we can expect similar rejigging here which brings us back to that routine victory over the Foxes last week.

In the opening half-an-hour Haaland, De Bruyne and co ran riot, executing Guardiola’s blueprint to perfection as they bossed possession and bossed the game. In the closing stages however, with the feted coach uncharacteristically making five substitutions, City conceded three clear-cut chances having lost all momentum. It was the most disjointed they have looked for quite some time.

Ultimately, no matter who is selected, the 2/13 favourites have to be strongly fancied to prevail this weekend. But it may take a while for City to find their groove, with some scares along the way.

Man United vs. Brighton

Twenty-four hours later, Wembley plays host to an intriguing clash that has all the ingredients to be a to-and-fro classic, featuring as it does a side that is blowing hot and cold and another that just keeps getting better and better.

Brighton’s progressive, clever football has not only won them an army of admirers under Roberto De Zerbi but it’s a mandate that has elevated them into the top six reckoning and what especially impresses about their stylish ambition is that it’s always at the forefront, no matter the circumstances or opposition.

In their last five games across all comps the Seagulls have averaged 22.8 shots per 90, nine per 90 on target. Included in that number is a trip to North London and a dominant victory at Stamford Bridge.

Assuming therefore that De Zerbi’s side don’t encounter stage-fright – and there is no reason to believe they will – this vibrant creation will relish the prospect of coming up against a Manchester United back-line deprived of its two first-choice centre-backs, with Luke Shaw additionally a doubt.

Granted, the defence Erik Ten Hag cobbled together at Forest last Sunday kept a clean sheet – and furthermore, denied their hosts a single shot on target – but that was against a struggling outfit who have committed the second fewest attempts in the league all season.

By stark comparison, Brighton possess Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March, two of the most impactful wide-men in the top-flight who have between them accrued 13 direct goal involvements since the beginning of March. They have too Danny Welbeck who has found the net twice in his last three starts, and Julio Enciso, that irrepressible conjurer of moments.

Even without the highly promising Evan Ferguson, the Seagulls have sufficient firepower to greatly trouble United and they very possibly will. It’s pertinent that the 27/20 favourites have only failed to score in two of their last 25 fixtures.

United of course cannot, and should not, be easily dismissed, not with Christian Eriksen back pulling the strings and Casemiro reinstalling class and bite to their midfield.

Up front, Marcus Rashford may be 50/50 to feature but Antony’s fine showing at the City Ground is a genuine cause for encouragement and it’s worth pointing out too that going into their Europa League second-leg with Sevilla this Thursday, the Reds have hit upon the handy habit of notching late in games. Exactly half of their last 18 have been converted beyond the 75th minute.