Ste Tudor | Fulham v Arsenal betting tips: Expect goals at the Cottage but surely not more late drama

BACK in August, the human opinion tombola that is Richard Keys got his y-fronts in a tremendous twist when Arsenal celebrated a win over Fulham.

Having conceded to Aleksandar Mitrovic around the hour-mark the Gunners impressively fought back to secure the points late on, thus maintaining their 100% start to the season. Cue utter carnage.

It was, according to the former Sky presenter, ‘disrespectful to the opposition’. Moreover, it was a ‘measure of how far they’ve fallen’ responding in such a heightened fashion to merely beating a ‘newly-promoted’ side.

We can only imagine his ire therefore at what transpired at the Emirates last Saturday. Two down to Bournemouth and at real risk of losing a chunk of their lead at the top, Mikel Arteta’s men mounted wave after wave of attacks, accruing 31 attempts on goal from start to finish, with 17 corners to boot. When Reiss Nelson curled home a 98th minute winner the ground shook to its very foundations.

Factor in other bouts of last-gasp madness at Villa Park and against Manchester United recently and Arsenal clearly have form this term for leaving it late and dramatic, and this has led to some armchair analysts insisting their title charge is being propelled too much by emotion, a fervour that simply cannot be sustained across a long campaign.

Yet over six months separates their frenzied jubilation in besting Fulham and the Cherries. It can be sustained.

Not that the emotional jibe holds too much water anyway. More accurately, this is an Arsenal now imbued with entrenched belief and fortitude, characteristics that mean they don’t accept cruel fortune any longer and it’s no coincidence that no team have won more points from losing positions in 2022/23.

In hindsight, damning this current crop of players for ‘bottling’ last season’s top four fight – along with the laughter that inevitably accompanied this accusation – reinvigorated them far more than any doodles Areta puts onto a whiteboard. We did this. We created a monster.

It’s an improved collective that is getting the best out of its bit-part players, a key consideration for any successful side. When Gabriel Jesus succumbed to injury, Eddie Nketiah ably took on the goal-scoring obligation and now that the 23-year-old is also unavailable, Nelson has stepped into the breach, boasting some quite remarkable stats.

In just 84 minutes of Premier League action this season – all of which has come from the bench – he’s scored three and assisted twice.

Staying with Arsenal’s front-line, Gabriel Martinelli’s clinical edge needs to be acknowledged, his 11 goals coming from just 43 shots. That offers up a goal conversion ratio just a fraction below Harry Kane’s. Bukayo Saka meanwhile has 19 goal involvements from his last 23 outings.

Possessing such a wealth of firepower has resulted in the Gunners firing 2.2 goals per 90 this season and frankly, that’s been needed because post-Qatar we are seeing evidence of a previously acclaimed defence starting to creak a little.

From August to the mid-season break, Arsenal kept clean sheets in exactly half their fixtures. Ever since, that has broadened to exactly a third.

Which will no doubt interest Mitrovic, a striker with 0.57 goals per 90 in 2022/23 and furthermore a player who never shies from the biggest stages. The burly Serb may be enduring a drought at present, by his standards, but he’ll plug away regardless. From every player who has scored 5-plus goals this season, only Erling Haaland has taken on more shots.

Behind Mitro, Fulham have a trio of genuine threats with Willian sublime more often than not, Pereira averaging 2.1 key passes per 90, and Manor Solomon really starting to make his mark at Craven Cottage. After battling back from knee surgery the Israeli has scored four in four.

There is also the Cottager’s fine home form to factor in, picking up 22 points from a possible 39, 10 of which have come at the expense of sides currently inhabiting the top half of the table.

Combined, Fulham and Arsenal have failed to get on the score-sheet in just 13.4% of their fixtures this season which suggests a 0-0 disappointment is unlikely and it’s interesting to note how their ways and means in scoring these goals will very possibly differ.

Only Liverpool and Manchester City have flung in more crosses this term than Fulham. Arsenal by comparison prefer to navigate a central path, executing 49 successful throughballs to date.

Look out too for a penalty featuring. Both teams have conceded four while Fulham have won a league-high of seven.

STE’S BET BUILDER

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