Ste Tudor | Man City v Arsenal FA Cup betting tips: Back Arteta’s flowers to bloom again

THE past has no business being at the Etihad this Friday evening. Its presence will be a ghost nobody cares enough to look for.

The Gunners were schooled 5-0 the last time they travelled to East Manchester, but that was a very different Arsenal playing in very different circumstances, and though it is admittedly quite interesting revisiting their line-up that day, and marveling at the impressive amount of construction work Mikel Arteta has subsequently done in just shy of 17 months, regarding its relevancy to this week’s keenly awaited encounter, there is little to none.

The same applies to Arsenal’s terrible record in recent times against Manchester City, winning just twice since the tail-end of 2015. Presently, the best put together and most assured team in the top-flight are five points clear at the top with a game in hand. They are unbeaten in 13 and boast the second best defensive record in the league. Bukayo Saka has 14 goal involvements in 16, Eddie Nketiah has scored seven in seven across all comps, and in the middle Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka – the very same player who got sent off in the 5-0 debacle leading to many writing him off for good – are bossing centre-circles on a regular basis.

What does it matter therefore if in previous seasons they have succumbed to Pep Guardiola’s fantastical creations if currently it is they who are fantastical? Besides, both of their victories were in the FA Cup.

Manchester City meanwhile are also a significantly changed beast to past meetings.

Since the autumn they have been paying an inevitable success tax from winning the league four times in five years and even if this adds up to just a small drop in intensity it has been enough to prompt inconsistency, along with a full-scale identity crisis.

If that were not problematic enough, Guardiola has had to devise a new attacking blueprint so as to incorporate a 6ft 5 centre-forward into a team that used to delight in not having a centre-forward at all but if the team have struggled on occasion to find their usual fluidity, the centre-forward in question has at least had a blast.

Erling Haaland’s hat-trick against Wolves means he has now out-scored every Golden Boot winner for the past four years, at the halfway juncture of 2022/23. He has successfully converted from 62.5% of his shots on target and scored every 62.4 minutes and if his figures astound spare a thought for statisticians who have to double-check everything through sheer incredulity.

The Norwegian phenomenon will likely start on Friday, as too will Saka for the visitors, because with neither side playing again until the following weekend, Guardiola and Arteta will look ahead to their league six-pointer on February 15th and consider the psychological ramifications of losing here. Plus of course, this is the cup, a competition that between them City and Arsenal have been finalists in for six of the last 12 years. For both managers, pedigree matters.

As too do ‘guts’ and ‘desire’ and a ‘fire to win from minute one’, qualities Guardiola insisted his team have been in scant supply of post-Qatar and his calculated – and uncharacteristically public – criticism last week does appear to be paying dividends. In their last two outings the Blues have racked up 13 shots on target. That’s the same as their previous five games put together.

Still, it’s worth reminding ourselves of something else he said in the highly charged aftermath of coming from behind to beat Spurs. Granted, the Catalan was referring to the title race but its pertinence is evident, nonetheless.

“We are a happy flowers team, all nice and good. I don’t want to be a happy flower. I want to beat Arsenal. If we play that way Arsenal will destroy us.”

And they likely will too if the hosts show any of the hesitation or deviation that’s been creeping into their approach play, because Arteta’s side are in full bloom. What’s more, their adventurous fare is having an effect early, scoring inside 25 minutes in three of their last four fixtures. City by comparison have scored 8 of their last 10 in the second half of games.

That latter detail is revealing, highlighting that a side that once swished and swooshed from the off now requires thought over instinct as they adjust to Haaland’s inclusion, all while fending off complacency from being so thoroughly brilliant over such a period.

Or to put another way, a team that in August 2021 schooled this Friday’s opponents, have gone back to the textbooks to swot up afresh.

Can Arsenal take full advantage, before the right formulas are found and City return to their formidable ways? The past says no, but the present strongly disagrees.