Ste Tudor | Newcastle v Manchester City betting tips: Haaland to grab the headlines, for better or worse

THIS Sunday, for the third time since their fortunes were dramatically transformed courtesy of a Saudi Arabian-backed takeover, Newcastle take on the club they ultimately want to become; the club that has revealed what fantastical riches await should missteps in investment, infrastructure and recruitment be kept to an absolute minimum.

Naturally therefore, the obvious – and most interesting – place to start when assessing this weekend’s clash is not with the visitors, because barring a bad day at the office we know what to expect from them. It’s in trying to determine if Eddie Howe’s side are any closer to City’s title-winning machine following a summer transfer window that has afforded them the opportunity to flex their financial might, even if that might has been seriously constrained by FFP. Are they heading in the right direction?

Early signs from 2022/23 suggest they are, with two good results on the board and no goals conceded, but before we explore that, it is necessary to first highlight just how wide the gap was between these sides last season, featuring a project that was complete, the finished article, and another just beginning to put their house in order. It was less of a gap in truth, and more of a chasm.

City beat the Magpies 4-0 at St James’ Park last December, then routed them 5-0 at the Etihad a few months later, and though Newcastle fans can rightfully point to a poor refereeing decision in one and a spurned early chance in the other, in reality, the Blues comfortably won out each time, a whole class apart.

Man City vs Newcastle 5 – 019' Raheem Sterling38' Aymeric Laporte61' Rodri90' Phil Foden93' Raheem Sterlingpic.twitter.com/BeMHUl5ahD

— MCFC BLUE FOREVER (@KDB17MCBM) May 8, 2022

It is doubtful however, we will see such a mismatch this weekend, and that in itself speaks volumes.

Under 2.5 goals at 7/5 is well worth considering

Newcastle’s consecutive clean sheets this term are an extension of a much improved defensive fortitude that saw them concede a goal-per-game post-Christmas last term compared to 2.2 goals per game prior to that. Furthermore, in Nick Pope they now possess a keeper who can keep them in contests, as evidenced by his outstanding individual display at the Amex last Saturday. Then there’s the acquisition of Sven Botman, a defender Newcastle heavily coveted from the get-go of their takeover, who is due to make his full home debut against City. The 22-year-old was crucial and everything to Lille last year, with the French side winning only three of the 13 games he missed through injury. Elsewhere, they won nearly half their fixtures.

All of which is very encouraging for an ambitious club that is looking to establish itself in the top six in the not-too-distant future, a top six spot that may be attained not from signing exotic, creative superstars as everyone initially imagined, but from a well-drilled, cohesive back-line. That this may come to pass under Howe – a coach hardly known for his defensive attributes – is little short of surprising.

Further afield it’s an interesting quirk that Newcastle have had twice the number of shots on target at this nascent stage of the season than City, while they boast a significantly better chance conversion rate too, 33.3% to 12.8%.

The Magpies have also racked up their fair share of corners to date, averaging seven apiece from their first two fixtures. Over 4.5 for Howe’s men at 5/2 is a terrific shout

But we must return to Botman and more specifically the player and potential phenomenon the Dutchman will be charged with subduing in the North-East, a player who has got everyone talking, with some of that talk plain daft.

In properly assessing Erling Haaland’s impact to this point it is of course legitimate to question his meagre eight touches against Bournemouth, and more so, wonder if a specialist number nine with little interest in linking up play diminishes City’s fluid and devastating blueprint. Headlines such as ‘City 4, Haaland 0’ though does no-one any favours. We are better than that.

Still, eight touches, one of which was from kick-off. Wow. As Stuart James in the Athletic pointed out, Rico Lewis, a 17-year-old substitute, enjoyed a third more possession from a brief, late cameo yet if it’s an extreme number that confounds, so too do Haaland’s other stats.

Erling Haaland had just EIGHT touches in Man City's 4-0 rout of Bournemouth as he endured a frustrating home debut.

Pep Guardiola defended his striker and claimed he had 'the most difficult job in the world against' the Cherries.#MCFC #seanknows pic.twitter.com/7UHHHD4FBC

— Sean Cardovillis (@sean_cardo) August 14, 2022

The Nordic Meat Shield already has two goals and an assist from just 152 minutes. Add in his 30 touches vs West Ham and that equates to a direct goal involvement every 12.6 times his boot has connected with ball.

In summation, at this early juncture, and until we know more, a simplified theory holds water. That maybe City are so far ahead of the rest they can afford to sacrifice a creative player, instead by-standing for the most part but ever-alert, they are fronted by the deadliest finisher in world football.

While City’s attacking merits are hogging all the attention, their defence remains as stingy as ever, conceding only two shots on target so far this term. The Blues to win to nil offers up 29/20

There is something else too, something that is highly pertinent to the outcome of this intriguing game between the best team in England and a team that one day intends to be.

To nullify Haaland as much as possible, Bournemouth remained deep and narrow throughout last weekend and we can reasonably assume Howe will set his team up accordingly here, concerned by the fact City’s prized distraction needs only a split-moment to make the difference.

But by limiting Haaland space the Cherries in effect offered up acres to Kevin De Bruyne and co to run amok. Which they did, terrorizing and scheming, and generally reveling in a freedom that has been routinely denied them in recent years.

The brilliant Belgian is pretty good, to put it mildly, in tight areas. Demoted in importance and partly left to his own devices, watch him tear the Premier League apart before his next injury inevitably strikes.

Eight of De Bruyne’s last 10 league goals have been converted inside the opening half an hour. Back City to be ahead at the break at 4/5