Ste Tudor | Premier League betting tips: Go fourth and multiply!

EXCUSES can be made and caveats attached but the cold fact is that Arsenal have won only one of their last seven games across all competitions. That is not a blip but rather a derailment.

Can Mikel Arteta’s men get back on track this weekend? Certainly fate has been kind in offering up a team at home who have endured relegation form since early November.

Before we get to Crystal Palace’s deep-set flaws, however, it’s worth highlighting a nagging suspicion that they might actually get something at the Emirates. At the very least the Eagles are capable of making life difficult for a side who are in desperate need of a routine three points right now.

On the road, all season long, Palace have been somewhere between okay to decent, picking up 1.2 points per game which is an improvement on last season. They have won three times to nil away from Selhurst Park, which is testament to Roy Hodgson’s knack of organizing two banks of four. There is also Palace’s 2-2 draw at Manchester City last month to consider.

Add in a morale-boosting victory in their last league outing and there is sufficient evidence to suggest Arsenal will encounter a good deal of resistance. After all, Palace have the second best defensive record outside of the top six.

It’s at the other end where Hodgson’s side have struggled, a lack of creativity a persistent and costly issue. That morale-boosting win over Brentford was inspired by Michael Olise and he is a huge loss here. Palace have carved out only 1.3 big chances per 90 all term.

The Gunners are fancied to prevail but a free-flowing, comprehensive bettering feels unlikely. Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka are running through treacle at present and – as we’ve witnessed – when both are off their game Arsenal drop a whole level.

Later in the day Brentford host Nottingham Forest, a club that has been charged this week with breaching FFP rules.

Yet even this headline-grabbing development pales – for 90 minutes at least – when compared to another Premier League punishment, because after serving an eight-month ban, this Saturday heralds the return of Ivan Toney.

Will the Bees’ prolific front-man be thrown straight back into proceedings? A half-hour cameo feels the most logical step given that ring-rust can be expected, but then again Thomas Frank must be reaching the point of desperation after seeing his side repeatedly fluff their lines.

Brentford have won just one in nine, scoring only eight times in that period, and this despite racking up a respectable number of shots.

The absence of Bryan Mbeumo has hardly helped matters but, if fit, he would be at AFCON anyway and this brings us to the most persuasive factor ahead of this fixture.

Forest were immediately improved by Nuno Espirito Santo’s appointment, picking up maximum points at St James Park and at home to Manchester United but subsequent AFCON absentees has decimated their defence.

A toiling draw since, to League One Blackpool in the cup, hardly bodes well.

Sunday’s brace of games first takes us to Bramall Lane where Sheffield United are showing some shoots of recovery under Chris Wilder, even if it is all relative.

A doubling of their PPG is of course encouraging, but it merely amounts to 0.6 which for any other club in the top-flight would be viewed as a crisis. They’re still conceding too, two-plus times in four of Wilder’s six games in charge.

Furthermore, the Blades remain rock-bottom in so many departments, from shots to clean sheets, from passes completed to corners won.

Jarrod Bowen. Away games. Inevitable. pic.twitter.com/4xfCuiEgVt

— West Ham United (@WestHam) December 8, 2023

The Hammers are minus Aguerd, Kudus, and Paqueta, big losses all, but just one league defeat in nine has elevated them into sixth spot and David Moyes’ side are in good shape generally with Jarrod Bowen their stand-out performer. Pertinently, the in-form forward has scored seven of his 11 this term away from East London.

One aspect that does jump out is West Ham’s low corner count this campaign. Coupled with the Blades struggling to gain set-pieces that leads us to an obvious shout.

And so to the South Coast, and arguably the most intriguing match-up this week as Iraola-ball takes firm effect at Bournemouth and Liverpool continue to win on a weekly basis.

Deprived of Mo Salah – scorer of 32.6% of the Reds’ league goals – rival supporters hoped Liverpool might hit a sticky patch, but two cup wins suggests they’re going to be just fine. Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz have helped fill the goal-scoring void while the form of Curtis Jones is worth noting.

Losing Trent Alexander-Arnold however is another matter altogether, their hybrid full-back midfielder pivotal to so much of his team’s build-up play. The 25-year-old is second in the league for big chances created and accurate long passes. Even more so than Salah, he is impossible to replace.

Still, 13 league games unbeaten, having scored two-plus goals in 77% of their contests in 2023/24 is sublime form to take down with them, and even with the Cherries’ recent propensity to keep clean sheets we can expect Neto in nets to have a busy afternoon.

Liverpool have averaged 19 shots per league game this term and have a healthy chance conversion rate of 8.2%. Sometimes it just comes down to maths.

As for Bournemouth, Dominic Solanke is their most obvious threat and a fortnight’s rest will only see him sharper. The former Liverpool striker has converted every 142 minutes in 2023/24.

STE’S FOURFOLD

Like the cut of Ste’s jib?

Under 2.5 goals for Arsenal, Brentford to lead at half-time, under 9.5 corners Sheff Utd v West Ham, and over 4.5 shots on target for Liverpool offers up 19/2 as an acca.

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