Ste Tudor | West Ham v Arsenal betting tips: Moyes caution to cost Hammers dear again

WEST Ham have beaten Arsenal only once in their last 15 encounters, that game a closely-contested 1-0 win under Manuel Pellegrini, and the Chilean being in charge is pertinent given his successors’ woeful record against the Gunners.

David Moyes has taken on the North London giants on 40 occasions across a managerial career spanning two-and-a-half decades. He has bested them just four times, last doing so in 2013.

Like his much-publicized hex when playing away to the ‘big six’ it’s a long-standing shortcoming that makes you question Moyes’ ultra-conservative approach in such games, one that can be equated at times to building a straw house and hoping it’s impenetrable. In their last three fixtures against current inhabitants of the top six, the Hammers have managed just 1.3 shots on target per 90 and that cannot solely be attributed to poor form and a poor season. A lack of ambitious intent also plays a part.

No doubt similar caution and a circumspect set-up will be in evidence at the London Stadium on Sunday which will be a shame because it increasingly feels like the only way to trouble this remarkable Arsenal side is to commit wholly to having a real go, as we saw in the second half at Anfield last weekend.

Granted, that is an extreme example, and West Ham cannot be expected to produce the decibel levels, nor the ferocious assaults mounted by Liverpool, but as recent weeks have illustrated, when teams attempt to absorb Arsenal’s waves of well-constructed attacks and hit them on the break it tends to end badly for them. Mikel Arteta’s men scored three-plus goals in each of their five games prior to their Merseyside examination, making light of the immense pressure that comes from leading a title race.

It’s a sustained prolificacy that has been greatly helped by Gabriel Martinelli mining a rich vein of form, contributing nine direct goal involvements in his last seven starts but it could be argued that the Brazilian’s brilliance has been unfairly over-shadowed this term due to Bukayo Saka being Bukayo Saka on the other flank. Slightly rectifying that, let’s point out that Martinelli has committed to 23 fewer take-ons than his team-mate in 2022/23 but been successful two times more.

Not that Saka hasn’t been hugely impactful either of course, with double figures for both goals and assists an obvious place to start. Moreover, the England star is the player who propels this collective forward, keeping them on the front foot. To date, he has posted 140 progressive carries this season and for context, Kevin de Bruyne has 93. Bruno Fernandes has 59.

If these two outstanding talents pose a grave threat to Moyes’ intention to nullify via numbers there is also the small matter of Gabby Jesus returning to the reckoning, his minutes and performance at Anfield firmly putting his injury woes behind him. It’s a hoary old stat but one always worth repeating that Jesus is still to lose any Premier League game in which he has scored.

Elsewhere, it’s worth noting that only Newcastle, Leicester and Tottenham have scored more goals from outside the box this campaign and this partly explains why Arsenal have scored a league-high of 19 courtesy of midfielders. The title favourites have also picked up the extremely useful habit of scoring early of late, notching five in their last four games inside the opening half an hour.

All of which points to an away win in a fixture that typically serves up plenty of goals, with 3.5 per 90 from their last 20 league meetings, and in truth it is difficult to make a solid case for the Hammers even if they have only lost once at home in 2023.

With Gianluca Scamacca out and Lucas Paqueta a serious doubt their attacking endeavours fall on Ings, Antonio, Benrahma and Bowen, none of whom have scored from open play since February, while a propensity to concede first in games means they will likely need to.

Only Leicester and Southampton have gone behind more often in 2022/23.

Staying with that quartet, between them they have scored an uninspiring seven in 34 in previous encounters with the Gunners.

A statement display is not out of the question, naturally. It can’t be when a side that finished seventh last May are playing for their top-flight survival in front of 60,000 zealots in a London derby. This though has all the hallmarks of another overly-cautionary tale from Moyes, one that he never seems to listen to.