Ste Tudor | World Cup final betting tips: Holding their nerve key for France and Argentina

THE biggest stage demands the biggest stars and inevitably so much of the attention in the build-up to the 2022 World Cup final will focus on Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe. How could it not, with both celestial talents sublime and impactful across the whole tournament.

Furthermore, each PSG superstar has a narrative attached to their quest that is too rich to ignore, with Messi hellbent on perfecting a legacy that already towers so large. In finally securing the most prestigious trophy of them all he will surely put an end to the tiresome comparisons to Ronaldo, who is magnificent but inferior. It would be his Abbey Road in the Beatles/Stones debate that once upon a time consumed music aficionados.

As for Mbappe, who scored in this colossal fixture four years ago, another eye-catching display in Qatar will cement his rightful claim to inherit Messi’s GOAT status. To this point, the 23-year-old has completed the most dribbles (23) in the tournament as he electrifies France’s forward forays and twists defender’s blood, but it’s pertinent that he is second to Messi in almost every other regard, from chances created to shots undertaken. Often he is second only to Messi.

A key exception to Messi’s supremacy has been in the goal-scoring, with each player tied on a tournament high of five and if this provides an intriguing sub-plot to Sunday’s spectacle, as the Golden Boot is contested, it’s also further cause to be excited about what awaits us.

Because though it is entirely typical for a big game’s narrative to centre on its best players it is also entirely typical that they disappoint, with an over-looked left-back invariably popping up with the winner. Only here, its main protagonists – as demonstrated again two-fold in the semi-finals – are bang in form and running amok and so elevated are their levels it is inconceivable that both will flatter to deceive in the newly-constructed Lusail Stadium.

One of these great players will be fundamental to their nation winning a third World Cup this Sunday afternoon.

Second on the billing, but still pivotal to their team’s chances, is Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez, the latter proving to be an ideal foil for Messi who used to prefer a target-man to buzz around, but now needs the buzzing done for him.

The Manchester City striker does this and then some, refusing to give defences a moment’s respite and his admirable endeavour has brought the reward of four goals to date, the third of which was a remarkable individual effort that settled Argentina’s semi with Croatia. Marauding in a straight line from inside his own half, it may have been a career highlight that relied on a good smattering of fortune, but the direct manner of it will strike fear into the erratic Upamecano should he be well enough to feature.

Griezmann meanwhile was everything to France’s overcoming of Morocco, largely by virtue of being everywhere, but if his ferocious work-rate is justly being acclaimed at present let’s not forget what he offers offensively. His 15 successful crosses are a tournament high and by some distance.

There is of course another consideration, above and beyond the players, and that is the occasion itself, a game of such magnitude and extreme significance that it warps even the temperaments of elite fare. Just ask Zinedine Zidane.

Commonly, this manifests itself in caution, with players petrified of making a life-defining mistake and terrified of having a runner-up medal for a souvenir, and across previous finals this plays out in the stats. Four of the last seven have gone to extra-time, two of them to penalties, and if the last World Cup final in Russia was an outlier, showcasing six strikes, of more relevance is that three since 1994 have finished goal-less.

How much therefore does it matter that between them these sides have racked up a fairly prolific 25 tournament goals, with each conceding a meagre five along the way? Little, if truth be told, though it is worth pointing out that France have the marginally better attacking return, scoring every 41 minutes. Argentina, for their part, boast the slightly superior defensive numbers, being breached every 114 minutes.

What feels more applicable is that five of France’s starting line-up participated in the previous final in 2018. With nerves such a factor that gives Didier Deschamps’ side a genuine edge.

Yet still, this remains a difficult one to call, given that both teams have shown numerous strengths to reach this point, and given that a match of this stature can often be a law onto itself. Then there’s Messi and Mbappe, an alchemist apiece, each capable of making history in a heartbeat.

With this in mind, focusing on the Half market for value is not a bad option instead of any outrights.

Argentina have scored 55.2% of their goals in 2022 in the first-half of games. France have scored 68% of theirs in second periods.

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