Stephen Tudor | England v Rep of Ireland Betting Tips: Makeshift Lions to impress again but goals at a premium

Lee Carsley’s second international outing as England manager back in early September saw him make four changes from the team that comfortably beat Republic of Ireland in Dublin.

A few days later at Wembley, those changes were barely remarked upon as Finland were similarly dispensed with by a couple of goals to nil.

Six changes were made in his second brace of fixtures, likely a reaction to his disastrous selection to face Greece, which front-loaded the side with attacking options at the expense of any structure. As criticism persisted towards a line-up that was initially viewed as brave, then later naïve, a very different XI put things right in Helsinki.

So what now? How much tinkering can be anticipated ahead of Carsley’s final game in charge before handing over the reins to Thomas Tuchel?

Frankly, given the manner of England’s highly impressive victory in Athens on Thursday evening, it would be a great surprise if there were any alterations at all, though Harry Kane will almost inevitably have his starting spot returned to him.

Curtis Jones signs off his England debut with a goal. Substitutes Morgan Gibbs-White & Jarrod Bowen play a part in setting up the Liverpool midfielder, who delicately flicks the ball in. 🎥 @itvfootballpic.twitter.com/pLgDL2BbQZ

— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) November 14, 2024

 

Expect England to heavily outnumber Ireland for corners this weekend. A corners 3-way handicap that starts 0-4 offers up 10/11

This is because England were quite superb in the Greek capital, controlling the narrative throughout and cleverly choosing their moments when to properly test a defence that looked uncharacteristically shaky.

Let’s not forget that Ethniki went into the contest boasting seven clean sheets in ten. Moreover, despite being cobbled together due to so many withdrawals -making them the definition of makeshift – this was a Three Lions collective that was supremely balanced, a benefit that particularly stood out in midfield. On his debut, Curtis Jones was neat and tidy, winning seven of his ten ground duels and finding a team-mate with 96% of his passing.

Even before his cute, improvised goal he was a strong contender for Player of the Match.Conor Gallagher meanwhile put in arguably his best performance on the international stage and this despite being harshly booked early doors.

With these two patrolling in tandem and cutting out Greece’s threats at source it allowed Jude Bellingham to forget about his middling club form and revel in a free role, made all the freer is must be said by Kane’s absence. The Stourbridge superstar twice hit the woodwork, coming so close to adding to a decent return for his country, with five goal involvements in ten going into the clash.

Bellingham over 1.5 shots on target is a shout at 12/5

If none of the trio are in the red zone regarding their fitness Carsley would be crazy to chop and change on this occasion, for all that Morgan Gibbs-White is worthy of minutes. Angel Gomes too.

Thursday’s win does little to improve the overall picture of Carsley’s brief tenure, but it must be viewed largely through a positive prism. Four victories were secured in five games, and pertinently, 11 different goal-scorers were on the scoresheet.

This is an encouraging sign suggesting the Three Lions are no longer dependent on Kane in the final third.

More encouraging, we know now that the squad Tuchel inherits has genuine quality running right through it. The peripheral fare is no longer made up of potential and possibilities.

With Anthony Gordon’s starting spot not nailed-on, Noni Madueke is the attacking talent to back, especially at a generous 6/1 to be first goalscorer

If things are looking rosier for England right now the same could be said of their opponents this Sunday, although context is needed and the margins are narrower.

Ireland went into their midweek hosting of Finland requiring a win to stave off the threat of relegation, and this was duly achieved courtesy of an Evan Ferguson header. With this being only Ireland’s third success in 2024, the result alone should be acclaimed.

Yet it must also be acknowledged that the Finns missed a spot-kick – or more accurately, it was brilliantly saved by Caoimhin Kelleher – and furthermore carved out several big chances as they bossed proceedings for the most part. Bluntly, Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side rode their luck and not for the first time left their back-line too often exposed.

It is a defensive frailty that has routinely proven costly, and perhaps we can expect a back three to be deployed in North London, as we saw in Dublin two months back. If so, Nathan Collins will be at the heart of it, a player who has committed to the most blocks in the Premier League this term. He will be alongside Dara O’Shea, who is third in the top-flight in that regard and averaging a hefty 5.6 clearances per 90.

Up front, Sammie Szmodics and Ferguson are dangers, but navigating the ball up to the pair will prove difficult for a team that has scored once every 180 minutes in 2024. Additionally, without Seamus Coleman and Shane Duffy, this is an inexperienced group travelling to the capital.

All told, it is reasonable to predict a low-scoring affair to play out, what with Ireland’s propensity to participate in them.

Ten of their last 15 games have failed to produce more than two goals. It is also reasonable to predict that the visitors will emerge with their heads high, a tight loss no shame given the disparity in quality on display.

But England should be backed for sure. More so, a new England that awaits a new manager.

Back under 2.5 goals and no to BTTS at 7/5

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