Stephen Tudor | Man City v Chelsea betting tips: Guardiola’s men will comfortably secure title

SHOULD Manchester City match or better Arsenal’s result this weekend they will be crowned league champions for the third year running, a feat that has only been achieved five times in English footballing history.

Before we get to that though – and more importantly, how their title charge has been put together – another scenario must be considered, that the Gunners lose at Forest 24 hours earlier and relinquish the faintest of hopes they currently have.

A celebratory mood at the Etihad would put a slightly different spin on a clash against a side City have already beaten three times this season, twice on home soil. Chelsea would love it if their London rivals fell short at the City Ground because a party atmosphere is always that much easier to poop.

Riyad Mahrez has found the back of the net in each of City’s victories over Chelsea this term.

Let’s give Arsenal the benefit of the doubt however and assume they prevail, meaning Pep Guardiola’s men have a job to do against an opponent who used to cause them all manner of problems until they started causing all manner of problems for themselves.

Without any caveats whatsoever, City simply have to be backed to get that job done because time and time again that’s what they do, and that’s what they’ve done, going all the way back to February 5th in fact, their last defeat in any competition.

Riyad Mahrez for Manchester City in all competitions 2022/23 👏

🥅 42 games⚽️ 15 goals 🎯 12 assists

Class! pic.twitter.com/H0pEp17hpM

— Stats24 (@_Stats24) May 9, 2023

That came at Spurs and led to many writing off the Blues’ chances of retaining their title but really we should have known from previous seasons that City are at their most dangerous when crisis creeps in and a run needs to be strung together.

With Arsenal vanishing into the distance, and with his creation dropping points pre and post the World Cup, Guardiola revisited his blueprint and stationed first Rico Lewis, and then John Stones in midfield, adapting his defence to a back three.

At the heart of it, Ruben Dias began to show the leadership qualities that temporarily deserted him, while at the hub of everything Rodri remained exceptional and all-encompassing. And with these adaptations no longer leaving Erling Haaland isolated a formidable proposition gained momentum, rediscovering their ruthless edge and arrogant swagger, and most pertinently of all, controlling games again with real purpose.

Erling Haaland’s first half by numbers vs. Everton:

5 touches 2/2 passes completed 1/1 long balls completed 1/1 ground duels won 1 shot 1 goal

Golden touch. 🪙 pic.twitter.com/MUB2HKZNGp

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) May 14, 2023

Last weekend at Goodison, a tough afternoon was expected amidst a vicious atmosphere. Instead, City kept a tight grip on the script throughout, even slowing the pace right down in the latter stages to conserve energy.

It is a reinvention that has seen them win 19 and draw three of their last 22 contests, scoring 2.9 goals per 90 and a breakdown of their phenomenal goal-haul makes for interesting reading.

On 13 occasions since early February, the champions-elect have converted one or more inside the opening half an hour but if this suggests they fire out of the blocks they really come into their own either side of the break. A notable 34.3% of their goals have been scored between the 40th and 60th minute.

That exact same percentage incidentally have been notched by Haaland and of course the record-breaking Norwegian should loom large in our thoughts. With just three games remaining in their seasons, the forward has scored the same number of league goals as Chelsea have in their entirety.

Which says as much about the visitor’s lack of firepower as it does Haaland’s incredible prolificacy.

Frank Lampard’s strugglers may have finally remembered how to trouble goalkeepers in recent weeks, bagging six in three, but we should not forget the sustained impotence that came before. From seeing their season collapse into chaos and mediocrity last autumn, Chelsea managed just 15 goals in 23 league outings. That equates to a goal scored every 138 minutes from October to the end of April.

Furthermore, their new-found ambition in the final third – remarkably, Chelsea have had fewer shots on target than Leicester this term – has come at a cost. Yet to keep a clean sheet under Lampard, the Pensioners have conceded 2.1 goals per game since he took charge.

Add in those three aforementioned defeats to City this season, plus how hell-bent Guardiola’s side will be to not only secure a title at home, but to give themselves the luxury of two non-essential games ahead of the possibility of two big finals, and there looks to be only one winner here.

The question is by how many, and when the damage will be done while given Chelsea’s woes, we should also ponder how routine it might be.