Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship betting preview: Deja vu for Rozner?

THE Irishman Shane Lowry’s record at this week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship is, to put it mildly, a curious one.

At its previous venue – the Abu Dhabi Golf Club – he teed it up seven times and on five of those occasions he didn’t make the cut (at the end of five of the ten rounds in those starts he wasn’t even in the top 100). It was all the more curious because he’d finished fourth on his debut there in 2010 but, on the other hand, he wasn’t alone. Tommy Fleetwood missed four cuts in five appearances there prior to winning back-to-back in 2017 and 2018. And, like the Englishman, Lowry managed to transform his record from one of usually missing the weekend into a winning one, lifting the trophy in 2019. It was a spectacular start to a year that would peak with Open Championship triumph at Royal Portrush.

Might memories of that experience fuel him this week at the tournament’s new home, Yas Links? It might do because this will the last chance he has to play in Abu Dhabi ahead of returning to Portrush for next summer’s Open. There’s also a rather more straightforward reason he might be licking his lips: he’s done rather well at Yas Links (albeit with caveats).

Why the qualification? Well, as with his log book at Abu Dhabi, his Yas performances have been far from straightforward. They’ve also been somewhat eerily similar. On both occasions he opened with a 67 to sit inside the top 10. He then failed to break 70 in each second round prior to making a bold move in the third lap: a 67 in 2022 moved him into second place, a 66 last year eased him into a share of the lead. Whereupon it went wrong. Not once, but twice. Two years ago a 77 saw him topple back into a share of 12th and a year later a 76 left him tied 28th.

Third time lucky this week? It’s a possibility but we’re going to look elsewhere in an event that should be an excellent lead into next week’s finale of the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai. The architect Kyle Philips has created a very playable version of linksland at Yas and it’s provided two excellent renewals. The top of the market looks well priced so we’ll take them on with a couple of outsiders.

Each Way – Antoine Rozner at 80/1

The Frenchman Antoine Rozner has taken to Kyle Philips designs. He was second at Tazegzout in Morocco on the third tier, has two top 30s at Bernardus, carded a 66 at Kingsbarns in the 2023 Dunhill Links and he was only two shots back of the 54-hole lead at Yas last year. He’s also got a fine record on paspalum grass greens that includes winning in Mauritius and Qatar. He also thrashed a 62 in round one of the Mauritius Open last December on a course that was a modern links track with paspalum greens. On genuine links courses he’s been fourth at the Dunhill Links and spent most of the 2023 Open in the top 10. He’s also in form, finishing fourth last time out in Korea. Back in 2020 he won the penultimate event of the year, also in the United Arab Emirates, ahead of the DP World Tour Championship. Deja vu?

Each Way – Sebastian Soderberg at 80/1 (plus First Round Leader Each Way at 60/1)

We’ll also take a bit of a flier with the Swede Sebastian Soderberg who lacks form since injury mid-summer but perhaps his liking for a Philips design will flip the switch. He’s been third at PGA National Sweden in 2014, 18th at Verdura in 2017, fifth at Bernardus in 2022 and second here at Yas last year when carding three sub-68 scores. He also has the nice habit of getting off to swift starts on Philips designs. At PGA National Sweden he carded a 67 in 2014 for third and a year later a 68 earned him fourth. At Verdura, a 61 earned him a share of first. He’s also got a 62 at Kingsbarns in the Dunhill Links Championship and has had one solo and one shared first round lead this season, as well as carding a 63 and a 65 in Mauritius on that modern links mentioned above that’s a lot like Yas Links.