Matt Cooper | DP World Tour Championship: McIlroy can start fast, Fitz can last the distance

IN one sense, this week’s DP World Tour end-of-year finale on the Earth Course at Jumeirah will be a celebration of European golf. In another, the feeling will linger that the circuit’s ongoing era of transition is beginning to rival Queen Victoria’s period of mourning for longevity.

To address the good news first, there is absolutely no doubt that the highlight of the 2023 season was Europe’s Ryder Cup revival in Rome. Orchestrated by Luke Donald, with starring roles for Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland, plus cameos from everyone else in the team, it was as brilliantly staged on the course as off it – a reminder of what European golf has done so well over the last four decades in that the whole was greater than the sum of its parts and a home soil match bolstered morale and the coffers.

Beyond that, although it’s somewhat galling that Rory McIlroy has wrapped up the Race to Dubai by playing only five regular events (his other four starts were in the States), there can be little doubt that he is a deserving winner after wins in Dubai and Scotland, plus top 10 finishes in three majors, the BMW PGA Championship and WGC World Match Play. Elsewhere Jon Rahm won a first Masters title and Viktor Hovland became genuinely world-class, albeit playing his best golf in America.

What, then, of the bad news? Well, there has to be a continuing concern that the tour is faced by the prospect of a golfing version of the brain drain as the top 10 players in the rankings who do not already own a PGA Tour card win one. In time some will return, but many will become involved in the Korn Ferry Tour if they fail to survive the top tier. There are plans to avoid the potential problems inherent in this set-up but it’s not hard to envisage grumbling either side of the Atlantic if and when the American second tier has increasing numbers of golfers who started on the DP World Tour while the old world circuit is getting increasingly watered down. It’s got the whiff of a lose-lose situation about it.

But enough gloom. This week should be a fine send-off for the season with the top 50 in the Race to Dubai in attendance and that impressive trio of McIlroy, Rahm and Hovland leading the betting.

This will be the 15th DP World Championship, all of them played on the Earth Course, and it has proved an excellent sifter of quality. Only one winner (Alvaro Quiros in 2011) has not played in the Ryder Cup and only two (Quiros and 2010 winner Robert Karlsson) have not won a major before or after their success in the event. McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Henrik Stenson are two-time winners while Jon Rahm has been champion three times. It’s a track that demands high-quality ball-striking and only Fitzpatrick has defied the general trend for length from the tee to be a requirement for sustained success.

Rory McIlroy

The Northern Irishman’s course record is solid. Very solid, in fact. He’s played it 12 times, finished top six on nine of those occasions and has two wins. Winning is obviously well within his compass but the price is short based on those numbers and a strong set of opponents led by Rahm and Hovland. His prospects of getting off to a flier might be stronger.

In 12 first rounds he has one outright lead, one shared lead, three full place finishes and one fifth place that would have had a reduced payout. In his last three appearances at the course he has been the low scorer in two of 12 rounds, a two-way low-scorer once and twice been second.

Matt Fitzpatrick

There’s a bit of fiddling going on here but mixing and matching these two prices feels preferable to the each way price of 14/1 that pays five places because there’s extra value in the win and more security in the back-up.

The Englishman’s course record is straightforwardly very good. He’s played in each of the last eight tournaments and finished top 10 six times including wins in 2016 and 2020. And then there is his form. He’s not been as consistent in 2023 as in previous years but he won the RBC Heritage in April and has a trio of top three finishes in his last five starts including victory last time out in the Dunhill Links Championship. Moreover, a week before that he enjoyed a fine Ryder Cup.

Adrian Meronk 

The Pole was the unlucky man of the 2023 season, winning three times but missing out on a Ryder Cup wildcard. Ahead of last week’s Nedbank Challenge, he spent time in Dubai readying himself for the end-of-season and he likes that part of the world. In fact, he is 7-for-11 at finishing in the top 10 in the UAE and has played the Earth Course twice. He was T32nd on debut in 2021 when his opening 68 was the fifth best of the day and his closing 66 a Sunday second-best. Last year he improved to seventh for the week when his Saturday 65 was bettered by no-one and equalled only by Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. Good company.

DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP

Unibet are offering plenty of specials for the final tournament of the DP Season, including Best 18 hold round, Hole in One, Winning Margins, and more.

Check out all the specials, below.