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Matt Cooper | Nedbank Golf Challenge betting preview: Travelling Thomas can win again

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Matt Cooper | Nedbank Golf Challenge betting preview: Travelling Thomas can win again

Matt Cooper|7 November 2023

WITH so many golf tournaments taking place every week around the world it is, perhaps, not so surprising that many of them have titles that are just, well, a bit odd. The ultimate example remains the Korn Ferry Tour’s short-lived Christmas in October Classic, a name that was peculiar enough in itself but guess what? It took place in, err, August.

This week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge is nowhere near such elite levels of barminess except that you might argue its title is bafflingly bland for a tournament which fashions itself as Africa’s major. “Golf challenge” reads more like something a friend of a friend is undertaking for charity than any kind of significant championship.

The tournament actually has a spiky history. In fact, in its first guise, as the Million Dollar Challenge, it was the LIV of the 1980s. At the time South Africa, still operating its socially divisive system of apartheid, was in the sporting wilderness but the promise of huge payment drew the world’s best golfers to Sun City and their best defence was that “they were just doing their job”.

In 2013 the tournament joined the then-European Tour and in 2019 it was a part of the lucrative Rolex Series, when the winner Tommy Fleetwood pocketed $2.5 million. By the time he defended the trophy last year (after two editions had been lost to the COVID 19 pandemic) he won a touch over $1 million. To put the early versions of this event in perspective, when Ian Woosnam won the 1987 tournament he also earned $1 million and it was the then-world record for first prize.

The very first edition had a field of just five and for most of its history had between eight and 16 competitors. Given that they were always drawn from among the best performers in the world at the time it is no surprise that the tournament has only ever been won by golfers good enough to have played in either the Ryder or Presidents Cup.

That trend has been maintained in recent history, when the field has been expanded (this week 66 players compete), but it might be that sooner or later that will change. Consider that from the first event in 1981 to 2015 it was not only the winners but the runners-up who were of the highest quality. Only two players to finish second in that stretch didn’t also play in a Ryder or Presidents Cup and one of them (the Aussie great David Graham) would have done had the event existed when he was at his best. In contrast, since 2016 four of the five runners-up have no experience of the two big team events.

The Gary Player Country Club hosts and on paper it is a big test at 7,834 yards but that is somewhat offset by an altitude of a little over 1,000 metres. Nonetheless, Nick Price, Ernie Els and Lee Westwood have won the title three times, Sergio Garcia, Jim Furyk and Fleetwood twice. This is a ball-striking test that tends to sort the wheat from the chaff. Of the last eight winners, only Branden Grace did not succeed by hitting a lot of greens in regulation and driving the ball long and accurately tends to matter.

Justin Thomas

Fleetwood is chasing the hat trick this week and is a short priced favourite. He’s pursued by Max Homa who is undoubtedly a fine player but he’s also a bit short this week. Of the top three, however, Justin Thomas makes most appeal.

In the aftermath of the Ryder Cup he stayed on in Italy and had a wander around Florence. He later ventured up to the lakes and now he’s making a first visit to this event. He ended the 2022/23 PGA Tour season with T12th and opened the new campaign with fifth before the Ryder Cup. There remain rough edges to his current game but he is motivated to turn things around from his generally poor 2023 form and this looks like a good opportunity for him to keep turning it around. He was a strong performer at altitude in the WGC Mexico Championship and this track could easily suit.

Rasmus Hojgaard

The Dane is not yet a Ryder Cup performer but a midsummer injury was at least partly to blame for that and he could easily join his twin brother as a European player sooner rather than later. He’s finished top 30 in each of his last four starts and drove the ball superbly every time.

He’s been a winner at altitude, in the European Masters at Crans, and he made a fine debut in this event last year. He opened with rounds of 68-69-69 to open up a one shot lead on the field after 54 holes before slipping back to seventh with a final day 76. He can learn from that experience and add to his tally of four wins at this level.

Nedbank Golf Challenge

Unibet are offering plenty of specials for the penultimate tournament of the DP Season, including Best 18 hold round, Hole in One, Winning Margins, and more.

Check out all the specials, below.

Please remember to gamble responsibly. Visit our Safer Gambling section for more information, help and advice.

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