Matt Cooper’s WGC Championship betting preview

THIS week sees the first World Golf Championship tournament of the year and its 23-year history is somewhat quirky. It began life as the globe-trotting American Express Championship, before it joined forces with a regular PGA Tour event to become the CA (and then Cadillac) Championship, played out of a settled home at Doral in Florida.

That resort was later purchased by Donald Trump and, in a remarkable move for the conservative sport that is golf, no sooner was he confirmed President of the United States than the event did a runner. Where to? It jumped to Mexico! Nor was the trolling of Trump finished there because a mere few weeks after he left The White House the event has re-located to Florida. Staggering scenes, but the really big question is: who do we back this week?

Each Way – Justin Thomas (18/1)

Inevitably the first WGC start of the year has drawn a world-class field and therefore the top of the market is packed with players boasting excellent claims. They’ll be faced with a Jack Nicklaus co-design at The Concession Club, a venture named after the famous moment when the Golden Bear gave Tony Jacklin (his fellow architect) a putt at the 1969 Ryder Cup. Nicklaus has always liked to place a premium on high-quality approach play, but this test also features particularly small greens and ones which JB Holmes has stated require an imaginative short game. It is also, as is almost inevitable in Florida, a course vulnerable to testing wind.

First up in the selections is 27-year-old Kentucky man Justin Thomas who, over the last three years, has a scoring average in Florida that is inferior to only one man in the field – the favourite Dustin Johnson. What’s more, within that record, he has finished first and third in the Honda Classic at PGA National which is not only a blustery Florida track, but a Nicklaus design to boot. His fondness for the great man’s examinations are further highlighted by the fact he has two runner-up finishes on them in his last three starts. Form-wise, he contended on his penultimate start in Phoenix before missing the cut last week, a result which has allowed a touch of value to creep into his price.

World Golf Rankings ️‍♂️

➖ 1 Dustin Johnson ➖ 2 Jon Rahm ➖ 3 Justin Thomas ➖ 4 Xander Schauffele ➖ 5 Tyrrell Hatton ➖ 6 Collin Morikawa ⬆️ 7 Patrick Cantlay ⬇️ 8 Rory McIlroy ➖ 9 Webb Simpson ➖10 Bryson DeChambeau

*Ahead of the WGC-Workday Championship ⛳️ pic.twitter.com/G8TpPw66CT

— SuperSport (@SuperSportTV) February 22, 2021

Each Way – Patrick Reed (30/1)

It was in this tournament seven years ago that Patrick Reed introduced himself as something more than just another rather good golfer. It was not so much the revelation that he considered himself a world top five golfer, more the bullish way he argued the point. “I’ve worked hard, I’ve won a lot,” he said. “I just don’t see a lot of guys that have done that, besides Tiger Woods, of course, and other legends. It’s one of those things, I believe in myself and I’m one of the top five players in the world.” Before long, Reed would have his parents thrown out of a tournament, argue with his college peers, fall out with his Ryder Cup team-mates, have multiple suggestions of rule infringements thrown at him, and, rather than wilt under the weight of so much controversy, actually seem to thrive on it.

Most recently, he did so when winning January’s Farmers Insurance Open after yet another case of his golf being placed under a cheating microscope. His hide is not so much cow-sized as cattle-dimensional, but we’re here to judge him as a punter rather than in any moral sense. With that in mind, he’s blessed with a superb short game (a potentially vital skillset) and his Florida results show top-ten finishes on four different courses. Moreover, he can win when up against quality fields and has done so more often than many who are a shorter price than he is.

Each Way – Sungjae Im (40/1)

There are two golfers whose chances I like this week, but so, too, does the compiler. Patrick Cantlay has two wins on Nicklaus designs, at Sherwood and Muirfield Village, whilst Webb Simpson is superb on Bermuda grass and also a winner on another Nicklaus test with small greens, Harbour Town. As they are short prices, I’ll head instead to Korea’s Sungjae Im who should be delighted that the event has returned to the Sunshine State.

Why so? Well, he’s only played there six times and within that small sample he’s twice finished third at Bay Hill, added fourth place at Innisbrook, whilst at PGA National (remember the Nicklaus link) he led the event at halfway on his debut and won there last year in his second appearance. In all that time he’s shown himself competent when putting on Bermuda grass greens, resilient when buffeted by blustery wind, and registered excellent long game numbers in both traditional and Strokes Gained stats.