PGA Championship betting: The conditions are perfect for Webb Simpson to win his second major

BACK in 1968 they sat in the sun-kissed parks of San Francisco singing of love and peace and harmony. A particular Summer of Love favourite was ‘Those were the Days my Friend’ and, as the golf world convenes in the city for a first major championship in 13 months, that winsome Mary Hopkins track feels a little like it’s mocking us all and the madness that 2020 has become.

But let us not fret about what we have lost. Instead, let's celebrate what we have. Chill out, pop a flower in your hair and back this trio hoping to claim PGA Championship glory at TPC Harding Park starting Thursday.  

Each Way – Webb Simpson 30/1  

Winston Churchill considered Russia “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma” and those words might be used to describe the top of this week’s market. Defending champion Brooks Koepka has four major championship victories in his last ten starts, but last week’s second place followed three finishes outside the top 60 and he's admitted that his injury problems remain ongoing. Rory McIlroy hasn’t won a major since 2014, Jon Rahm was last week’s World No. 1, Justin Thomas replaced him this week, Dustin Johnson recently followed a win with two rounds of 80, and Professor Bryson DeChambeau has reinvented all notions of what a riddle is.

The eye, therefore, is drawn a little lower down the order, to a man who has won twice this calendar year (either side of lockdown), who boasts seven top three finishes in his last 18 starts, a major winner who hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in his last eight major starts, a fellow, indeed, who played well last week (T12th) without wasting emotional, mental or physical energy by being in-contention. That major win came at the Olympic Club, next door to this week’s venue and designed by the same man. Webb Simpson is the golfer and the 34-year-old grabs first spot in the staking plan.  

It's time. #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/18vF5oF1RB

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Each Way – Tyrrell Hatton 50/1  

In early March Tyrrell Hatton went toe-to-toe with a high quality field and a Bay Hill layout which many described as being “major-like”. The Englishman hung tough to claim his first PGA Tour title, to add to four career triumphs on the European Tour. For many his ability to withstand difficult conditions was something of a surprise and whilst it might be the case that his temper tantrums come across as churlish, it would be folly to believe that they are always detrimental to his cause. In fact, even while often seeming on the brink of a Basil Fawlty-style attack upon an inanimate object during that win, he ultimately coped more than competently with every pressure situation.

Moreover, he’s got a fine log book at the top level. He’s collected 11 WGC top 25s since 2016, all of it valuable experience for helping him add five major championship top tens. His resilience is stronger than the caricature suggests, not only demonstrated at Bay Hill, but also when emerging as winner from a six-man play-off in the Turkish Airline Open at the end of last season. Eight of his last ten starts have reaped top 20s, six of them top sixes including two wins. His stats are good too: 14th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and eighth for Strokes Gained Putting. It’s a very neat combination and he gets the vote.

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Outsider – Chez Reavie 90/1  

There was once a time when this event was famous for leftfield winners, a period that is long gone in truth, but we also know that majors are not always won by the biggest names. When someone breaks from the pack it’s common to assume that they offered no clue and yet plenty have done so by learning the ropes in the majors and WGC events ahead of the breakthrough; they also tend to win in the 12 months before the major triumph. Which leads us in the direction of final selection Chez Reavie.

The 38-year-old might sound like a French bistro with bad reviews on Trip Advisor, but he’s been a quietly improving golfer over the last four seasons, accumulating five top 25s in the majors including an always-in-contention third in the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach last June. He was also tied sixth in last week’s WGC St Jude Invitational, when his long game was in superb nick, ranking second for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. A winner at River Highlands last summer he also added fifth in the Tour Championship, more evidence that he’s far from over-awed in the best company. The course should suit a plotter and Reavie is a value outsider with seven places on offer.