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THE PLAYERS Championship betting preview: The Dye is cast for Cantlay

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THE PLAYERS Championship betting preview: The Dye is cast for Cantlay

Matt Cooper|7 March 2023

IT is perhaps no surprise that the PGA Tour fashions its flagship event (THE PLAYERS Championship) in a manner that suggests someone left the caps lock on – almost as if it is a metaphor for the us-and-them nature of the sport these days. Except, of course, that it is becoming even more complicated than that because, in an echo of the world around them, top level golfers are now witnessing a state of affairs where the very rich are getting even richer and the rest are twiddling their thumbs, all thanks to LIV Golf’s wanton avarice and the PGA Tour’s newly-announced fightback which involves a 2024 schedule loaded with designated, no-cut, big bucks events.

Yes, while most of us groan at our heating bills from behind cold fingers, elite golfers are quite literally insulating themselves with multi-million dollar prize funds. There was once a time when golf naturally lent itself to wonderfully romantic narratives – fellows who defied appalling form to claim a win, the nerve-shredding drama of saving a card, the chaser of dreams who finally comes good, the stomach-unsettling nature of Q-School – but for how much longer can this continue when the players are so absurdly wealthy?

It made the triumph of Kurt Kitayama in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational all the sweeter. On Saturday night Rory McIlroy noted that designated events had delivered the goods this year and added: “You’ve got a ton of big names up here. It’s great to see the big names playing well. I think for us to get that thrill of going up against each other week after week, that’s really cool.”

It was arguably much cooler seeing Kitayama – a man who has plied his trade on 11 different tours around the world in the quest to hit the big time – turn the big boys over. McIlroy is too decent not to have dealt well with defeat on Sunday but it says much that even he can’t rid himself of the urge pull up the drawbridge.

And so to TPC Sawgrass and Pete Dye’s Stadium Course, a layout created with this tournament in mind. The design was detailed to produce excitement, drama and volatility, and to a large degree it has been achieved. The closing holes fulfill the brief and tend to leave a few golfers (and a few course architecture purists) crying into their drinks come Sunday evening. Who can conquer the test, however? Let’s have a look.

Patrick Cantlay

This championship (and the course) has generated some very curious individual log books down the years. Rickie Fowler, for example, has played 11 times and only twice made the top 40, but those exceptions were a first and second. Patrick Cantlay’s record is a little more subtle. On his first two visits he was T22nd and T23rd but both times he spent the first 54 holes inside the top 10. His last three starts? Missed the cut each time.

There’s no arguing that a dodgy final round record and recent difficulties making the weekend are a negative but there are also valid reasons to think this class act can contend again. On the one hand. there is his form: third at the Genesis Invitational and then fourth last week in the Arnold Palmer Invitational (when he ranked first and third for Strokes Gained Tee to Green). And, on the other hand, he has a fine Pete Dye record with a trio of top threes at Harbour Town, five top 15s in a row at TPC River Highlands and a victory at TPC Louisiana.

Jordan Spieth

Also take a chance on Jordan Spieth to pull his socks up at Sawgrass. Fourth there on debut in 2014, he hasn’t landed a top 40 since but he has won at River Highlands and also added victory at Harbour Town last May. Form-wise, he was sixth in the Phoenix Open and then fourth last week when flying in the final round. Afterwards, he explained that his long game has been solid all year and added some very chipper words about his short game. He was excited to convert early birdie opportunities and even accepting of a few late missed efforts, too, because he’d hit them exactly where he’d wanted to.

Sepp Straka

We normally only have three picks but the last two are big prices so we can split the stake on them. First up is Austria’s Sepp Straka who made his breakthrough on the PGA Tour at last year’s Honda Classic in Florida. Since then he has twice lost out in play-offs and was an impressive fifth on defence of the Honda two weeks ago. He was also ninth in this event 12 months ago and third at Harbour Town in May.

JT Poston

Winners of the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield have a fine record at TPC Sawgrass. Davis Love III, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia and Si Woo Kim have all completed the win double, Kevin Kisner has won one and lost a play off in the other. Can JT Poston, who won the Wyndham in 2019, add to that trend? He’s twice finished T22nd in this event, is a three-time top 10 finisher at Harbour Town (including third last year) and was also second at River Highlands eight months ago. Like Straka, he’s a lively outsider.

 

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