Tour Championship betting preview: McIlroy can pounce again

JUST one week remains in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season and what a campaign it has been. We’ve witnessed revival and regression, relish and regret, recriminations and ruined reputations. Elation for some, sorrow for others, with outrage never too far away either. John Keats once wrote of autumn as the “season of mist and mellow fruitfulness”. For golf, in contrast, this has been a season of black lists and fellow unscrupulousness. Off the course, at least. On the course has been more fun so let’s cast our minds back to the highlights.

It was a season in which Max Homa reminded us that he’s spectacularly good at playing golf in his home state of California. He won there in September, won again in January and was second in February. Unfortunately, he also reminded us that he’s still completely bewildered by major championships – even the fact that the US Open was held in LA couldn’t help him out. He missed the cut.

It was the season when a quartet of former major champions reminded everyone that they can still clatter balls well enough to lift trophies. Justin Rose and Jason Day both won once while Keegan Bradley and Lucas Glover did so twice – and a man who almost won a major in his pomp very nearly did so this year. Rickie Fowler couldn’t win the US Open but he did win again, for the first time in four years, two weeks later.

It was the season when Emiliano Grillo (10 top three finishes since his last win) and Russell Henley (six consecutive unconverted pre-final round leads) finally tasted triumph again, but Tommy Fleetwood (16 PGA Tour top fives, six of them in the last 12 months) couldn’t quite find the secret to landing a maiden victory Stateside.

It was the season when Canadians thrived (Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson, Corey Conners and Nick Taylor were all winners) but Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry and Adam Scott didn’t (they all failed to make the Playoffs).

In the majors, Jon Rahm hauled down a resurgent Brooks Koepka in the Masters but no-one could better Koepka in the PGA Championship. In the US Open, Wyndham Clark surprised the stars in Hollywood and then Brian Harman nobbled them all in a wet Open at Royal Liverpool.

Rahm was on fire before and after New Year (never outside the top seven in nine starts), Rory McIlroy has ticked off 19 top 10s in 24 starts over the last 12 months and Scottie Scheffler has failed to finish top 12 in only three of his 22 appearances in the same period.

They remain the world’s premier trio but is Viktor Hovland about to join them as the planet’s elite? He won a second World Challenge in December, contended in the year’s first two majors, claimed the Memorial Tournament in June, and was sensational when carding a back nine 28 to land last week’s BMW Championship.

Birdies on SEVEN of his last nine holes 😳

Viktor Hovland was dialed en route to his victory @BMWChamps. pic.twitter.com/306t3P8EPc

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 21, 2023

What can we expect this week? Well, remember that, in essence, we don’t wait until mid-Thursday for the tournament to become in-running because of the FedExCup’s unique format which assigns starting strokes.

Here is the situation ahead of round one:

• 10-under Scottie Scheffler
• 8-under Viktor Hovland
• 7-under Rory McIlroy
• 6-under Jon Rahm
• 5-under Lucas Glover
• 4-under Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick
• 3-under Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
• 2-under Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim
• 1-under Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
• Level Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka

The tournament takes place at East Lake in Atlanta, Georgia. It’s a Donald Ross design that features Bermuda grass on the greens and in the rough. The latter is a key element – it is tangly and sticky. Players find the green 8 times out of 10 from the fairways but in just half of their efforts from the longer grass.

Each Way – Rory McIlroy at 7/2

Is there hope for the chasers this week? It will be tough for those a long way back but not impossible to overhaul Scheffler: in his 21 stroke play starts this season he has finished within six shots of the lead 15 times (nine times he was within three blows). He might also be a little vulnerable because for most of this year he has been bullish in the face of his putting woes whereas he did look somewhat crestfallen when struggling on Sunday (the flipside is that seriously elite players often bounce back from such adversity).

Of the chasers, Hovland and McIlroy make most appeal. The Norwegian has carded two 65s in three final round starts at East Lake and is clearly in sensational form. But McIlroy has long-standing affinity with the track. He was a conventional winner in 2016 and also second in 2014. Since starting strokes were applied he has won in 2019 and then again last year. He also averages 66.57 in his last seven first rounds at East Lake and a repeat could see him edge closer to Scheffler, ready to apply pressure as the week goes on.