Flat RacingHorse Racing

Jamie Spencer: “Forgive him that run and he has a fair chance”

October 15, 2021January 7th, 2022

THIS is my last Unibet column, so I’d simply like to say thank you to all of those involved from start to finish. I am probably a big price to be signing off with a winner at Ascot on Saturday, but Magical Morning has each way chances in the last and I’ll give you my thoughts on all races.

Best of luck.

1.25pm

I am not telling anyone anything they don’t know here, but Trueshan has a very obvious chance on what he did in this race last year and in France last time.

2.00pm

Ventura Diamond

As one of the lowest-rated in the 20-strong field, I doubt that this ride will be a winning one, to be perfectly honest. On all known form, she is really up against it. But she actually posted a career-best when third to Vadream over course and distance last time, and she is a 3yo filly getting the allowances, so perhaps she can step up again and belie what I imagine will be huge odds. Rohaan is my idea of the one to beat.

2.35pm

Snowfall will win this if she is at her best but that Arc run was only 13 days ago – that has to be a concern of sorts – and I prefer the fresher legs of Albaflora. I appreciate Snowfall put her firmly in her place in the Yorkshire Oaks but she could be the one to take advantage of a below-par effort from the favourite.

3.10pm

I take a very simple view of this race and that is Palace Pier is comfortably the best horse in the race and will win. Odds of 6/4 and upwards look very fair to me.

3.50pm

Having said that Snowfall’s run in the Arc may have left a mark on her, I am probably arguing against myself in putting up Adayar here. But he did a fair bit wrong in that race and still came fourth, and he was also having his first race since July there. I can see him giving Mishriff and the rest plenty of problems stepping down to 1m2f around here, the scene of his King George win.

4.30pm

Magical Morning

He didn’t run up to expectations in the Cambridgeshire last time but forgive him that run and he has a fair each way chance in here. Remember, he went off at just 9/1 at Newmarket, having just been touched off at York the time before. He is 2lb higher here in what is obviously a very deep race but he is clearly a very smart handicapper, one ideally suited by 1m it seems, when he is on song. I do think his stablemate Sunray Major could well a be Group horse, and a good one at that, in a handicap off 101 after what he did last time. This Dubawi half-brother to Kingman may just have the talent to match his pedigree.