IT is a very open Oaks, but you can see why Santa Barbara is favourite. She has the pedigree and the potential and, take away the talk beforehand, she ran a very good race when fourth in the Guineas on her reappearance.
But I just don’t get the huge disparity in price between her and Saffron Beach, who finished two places in front of her at Newmarket.
Looking at her pedigree, she is obviously not certain to get the 1m4f, but New Bay has done well as a sire so far and I think this filly will get 1m2f standing on her head. So I think she is well worth chancing at this trip.
Her 1000 Guineas form is probably at least on a par with any of these.
Elsewhere, you have to respect Snowfall after what she did in the Musidora and there are few, if any, doubts, about her staying 1m4f, but the draw has not been kind to one of the other form horses, Zeyaadah.
She ran a very good race under a penalty when second to Dubai Fountain at Chester but the draw in one really is not helpful.
Stall one at the 1m4f start is the lowest point of the track, so you have to work very hard to get an early position. You either use up a lot of energy or take your medicine. Not a good choice.
And if you also shift left coming out of the stalls you will lose all impetus. It’s a big negative.