Flat RacingHorse Racing

Jamie Spencer: “Without Kameko, this Derby would look more like a Group 2 or 3 race”

July 2, 2020

13:50 Epsom: Modern News travelled well in the Chesham before not quite getting home over 7f there, so I think the step down in trip will suit. He has two runs under his belt too, which the Windsor winner Twaasol doesn’t have. Experience is key here.

14:25 Epsom: I finished third in a QEII on Safe Voyage last October, and I have a feeling this could be pretty simple for him. Any more rain would make it easier. He is the best horse in the race, has the pace, the draw and I think he will get a good tow into the race from Shine So Bright and Vale Of Kent, too.

15:00 Epsom: The stats surrounding Dubawi colts after they have been gelded are very good , so I am siding with Ironclad here. He will need luck from stall two but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t rated 100 by the end of the season, win or lose here. His breeding – by Dubawi out of the Group 1 winner Heat Haze – tells you he is well treated off just 86 and the step back to 1m2f will suit.

15:40 Epsom: It looks a genuine coin-toss between 1,000 Guineas winner Love and Frankly Darling, but I have to side with Aidan O’Brien, Classic form and Galileo here. Love dominated in the final furlong at Newmarket and Ballydoyle will know where they stand with Frankly Darling, after she beat their Ennistymon in the Ribblesdale.

16:15 Epsom:  Fooraat has the potential but I have to be with Cloak of Sprits, who could get the run of the race from four. Her Guineas second is the best piece of form on offer and I will forgive her below-par run at Ascot, dropping back in class.

16:55 Epsom: Without Kameko in here, then this Derby would look more like a Group 2 or 3 this year, so it is the 2,000 Guineas winner for me. He is by some way the best horse in the race on that Newmarket form and if gets the trip he will be very hard to beat.  I know that is a fair if, and the owner’s Roaring Lion came there on the bridle 2f out and didn’t quite get home, but I have to give Kameko a chance given his class edge. English King has a horrible draw in one and Vatican City and Russian Emperor interest me most of the O’Brien six – the latter looks the more likely stayer – but I will put in a good word for Mohican Heights. I know the horse well, having won on him art Salisbury last year, and I thought he shaped very well when third in the King Edward VII on his return. He has come out of the race in good shape and I can see him running better than his big odds suggest. The less rain the better for him from here.

 

17:35 Epsom: Alemaratalyoum likes this tricky kind of track to wake him up – he has won at Goodwood and ran well when a close fourth in this race last year – and he could be ready to strike now after a couple of fair runs this season. He has come down to a good mark again, and more rain would increase his chances.