Luke Morris: “He could outrun his odds if the ground isn’t too testing for him”

IT IS hardly original but it is difficult to see how Enable doesn’t win her third Arc, as promising and progressive as a few of her rivals are.  Finding chinks in her armour has proved impossible, and a smaller field than usual probably plays to her strengths even more.

 

Ascot

2.00pm

The Cruising Lord

He is up against it at these weights and obviously didn’t run well here in one of the Shergar Cup races last time. But he has had a break since and won on his reappearance, so hopefully he can get back to his best, which is probably a 5f Listed second in soft ground at Sandown in June.

 

3.10pm

Keyser Soze

He wasn’t beaten far in a valuable handicap at Chelmsford last time and he is 5lb lower on turf, so he is probably not at all badly handicapped. He will need to show a lot more than of late but he could outrun his odds if the ground isn’t too testing for him.

 

3.40pm

Thrilla In Manila

He is clearly thrown in the deep end somewhat here, but that probably tells you what they think of him at home. And he is obviously unbeaten after winning his maiden at Newbury last season. It’s obviously a big ask for him, but his pedigree suggests the soft ground will suit him and he won with some ease at Newbury.

 

4.15pm

Miss Celestial

She is another of mine with a little amount to find but she has run three good races since winning her handicap at Bath off a mark of 89 in July, most recently over this trip last time in Germany. This will be the softest ground she has encountered but hopefully she will handle it okay and take another step forward. Her stamina in the conditions is a concern, though.

 

4.50pm

Celsius

He is clearly a very progressive sprinter but he is now 7lb higher than when winning narrowly at Goodwood last time, so this is a lot tougher. But he has winning form on soft too, and obviously there could be more to come from him. Actually, I think he has a big chance.

 

Wolverhampton

8.00pm

Lapidary

Her winning run came to an end over 7f at Kempton last time and she races off the same mark here, so she isn’t obviously well handicapped on her first start at this track. But she clearly has her chance over a shorter trip that suits her well.

 

8.30pm

All Points West

We probably expected a bit more from him on his first start over this trip at Pontefract last time, but maybe it was just a case of the wide-margin winner progressing massively there. And, after just four starts, there is probably a fair bit more to come from our horse, too.