Nick Peet previews UFC Vegas 61 headliner: Dern vs Xiaonan

Whatever happens at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas this weekend the UFC is onto a winner with their strawweight title eliminator matchup between Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan.

In front of a somewhat bizarre and exclusive fanbase of one – apparently Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has rented out the entire event – the next 115lb title contender will emerge.

And whether it’s Dern or Xiaonan having her arm raised, the sell on narrative to face the winner of next month’s clash between current champ Carla Esparza and former champ Zhang Weili writes itself.

Dern, 29, is the type of poster girl the UFC loves. From her So Cal lifestyle, being married to a pro surfer, her bilingual BJJ upbringing and her status as one of the greatest female jiu-jitsu players that ever lived, her transition to MMA was huge for the sport.

It’s taken four years for her to truly find her feet (and fighting weight) inside the Octagon. But her striking is rapidly improving and, naturally, her 12-2 record includes seven submission wins, four coming in the UFC.

Thanks to Dern’s Brazilian father – ‘Megaton’ Diaz, also a BJJ icon – she sells in both North and South America and, rather like Ronda Rousey in her early days, Dern’s grappling represents an unmatched skillset.

Xiaonan, meanwhile, is one half of a match-up that could truly engage an entire nation.

The 33-year-old from Shenyang, but also now based out of California, was seemingly on a fast track to a title shot in 2020 after suffering just one defeat in her first 17 pro fights.

The prospect of an All-China world title fight against then champion Weili was generating real momentum. But Xiaonan was knocked off tracks when she lost to new champ Esparza and then outworked last year by Marina Rodriguez.

Now 15-3 (1 NC), Xianonan can position herself perfectly for either a rematch with Esparza early in 2023 or, should betting favourite Weili emerge in November with the belt, set up that mouth-watering battle of China the UFC has been dreaming about.

That’s all speculation and potential narratives for the future, of course. Firstly, Dern and Xiaonan must face one another over five x five-minute rounds in a matchup that’s desperately hard to call.

Despite having five less MMA fights, experience goes to Dern, whose BJJ competition background is sublime. Plus, she’s also fought in a five-round UFC main event before too, despite losing on points to Rodriguez last October.

Xiaonan’s advantages are in the stand-up, thanks to her background in Sanda – a full-contact martial art known as Chinese kickboxing. She’s also beaten a much higher calibre of opponent since joining the UFC than Dern.

Where this fight takes place then is key. Whilst it’s on the feet, Dern’s growing skillset will be truly tested. But should it hit the ground, Xiaonan’s scrambling will need to be more ferocious than ever.

Dern’s time at the top in the UFC will come, but not at the expense of Xiaonan in the early hours of Sunday morning, who I expect to put the two-fight skid behind her with an impressive points victory to potentially set up that All-China super fight in the New Year.

TIP: Xiaonan on Points