Nick Peet: UFC 312 betting preview

THE UFC has conquered almost every corner of the living world in their short but meteoric 31-year existence, yet one continent still remains Octagon unoccupied.

Despite having a trio of champions with origins tied to Africa in recent years, the pandemic halted any plans the MMA powerhouse had on entering its sixth and final continental fanbase.

But with all Covid-19 restrictions now behind us, the UFC is determined to break more new ground and, this weekend, one man can all but seal the deal in victory.

South African Dricus du Plessis is the first fighter ever to collect UFC gold with Africa’s sand still between his toes.

The UFC middleweight champion fights out of Pretoria and has a dream; to headline the UFC’s debut show on his home continent.

However, to have any chance of realising that goal he must make a successful second defence of the 185lb belt against a familiar foe in Sydney, Australia early Sunday morning.

STILLKNOCKS

‘Stillknocks’ captured the belt in January last year, with a points decision victory over Las Vegas-based Sean Strickland.

But the judges were divided and the split decision nature of the result left the rematch door ajar.

Whilst du Plessis, 31, would choke out former champion Israel Adesanya in his first defence in August, Strickland too got back to winning ways against former contender Paulo Costa.

The rematch awaits 👊@DricusDuPlessis vs @SStricklandMMA

[ #UFC312 | Saturday 10pmET | Live on @ESPNPlus PPV ] pic.twitter.com/9MLcqple5Z

— UFC (@ufc) February 6, 2025

And with the division in flux with a trio of fresh contenders jostling for a title shot, the timing worked in Strickland’s favour to jump back in with du Plessis first.

The 33-year-old from California was 11-5 in the UFC heading into 2023, but strung together a couple of wins to land an unlikely opportunity against long-standing kingpin Adesanya.

Strickland shocked the world by reliving Izzy of the belt, also In Sydney, but failed to hold onto it for long when just four months later (January last year) he was defeated by du Plessis.

REVENGE OR REPEAT?

The South African is well-versed in the role of a champion. He’s won 22 of 24 pro fights, 20 inside the distance, and accrued belts on numerous continents before landing in the UFC.

Inside the Octagon, he’s unbeaten in eight straight and whilst his style was initially criticised for its brutal nature, it’s finally receiving the recognition it deserves.

There is no breaking him and he’s a winner, through and through.

Typically, the Aussie media have turned on Strickland also. His outlandish and often downright ignorant outburst are designed to cause a reaction.

He advances the role of the heel, but he should be more focused on the environment inside the Octagon than outside of it.

Dricus is coming in hard, fast and determined to end Strickland’s Indian summer and send him spiralling back down the rankings.

The challenger got lucky last time he was Down Under, Adesanya – we now know – was a spent force. But he’ll find a champion still chasing his legacy in the opposing corner this weekend.

To finally land on African soil the UFC simply must have an African champion headlining the main event. Dricus du Plessis can be that man.

All he has to do is close the chapter on Sean Strickland and light the blue touchpaper on the du Plessis middleweight era.

TIP: Dricus du Plessis by TKO Rnd 3

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