Nick Peet: UFC Tampa

THE UFC closes out 2024 in Tampa, Florida on Saturday night with a welterweight top 10 match-up that could well be a sleeper, last minute contender for Fight of the Year.

Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington hasn’t been seen inside the Octagon since last December’s ill-fated title shot against Leon Edwards ended in a flat, one-sided beatdown in favour of the Brit.

Joaquin Buckley, meanwhile, has won three on the spin in 2024 alone, taking his current run of form to 5-0 and climbing into the 10 in the 170lb rankings.

The Missouri striker possesses 14 knockouts in 20 career wins and is in the form of his UFC tenure right now, being the first man ever to stop Stephen Thompson with a single punch last time out.

Covington, 36, is ranked higher however, three places at #6, and has consistently faced higher ranked opponents.

Three of his last five contests were, in fact, championship fights, although Colby did lose each one of them.

His first shot, in December 2019, was his best effort.

Despite being stopped due to strikes in the final minute of five entertaining rounds against Kamaru Usman, Colby played his part in a Fight of the Year contender.

After stopping former champ Tyron Woodley due to injury, Covington rematched Usman in November 2021, but this time lost a unanimous decision.

The pace he puts on is never easy to deal with 😮‍💨@ColbyCovMMA returns Saturday in the #UFCTampa main event! pic.twitter.com/6gNQQvkIfD

— UFC (@ufc) December 9, 2024

And he suffered a repeated of that outcome versus Edwards after securing his shot with a victory over Miami rival Jorge Masvidal in between.

Quite what Covington has left at this stage is unknown. But if he harbours any title aspirations he has to come out on top on Saturday night.

Buckley, 30, has seven knockouts in his 10 UFC wins since arriving in the organisation during lockdown in 2020.

He shot to fame later that year, in his second fight, with his Knockout of the Year spinning back kick KO of Impa Kasanganay.

But, in the aftermath, he struggled to find consistency, jumping from welter to middleweight, before final settling back at 170lb 18 months ago.

Now ranked #9, Buckley can leap into the title mix for the first time in his career with a victory over Covington, but he doesn’t have much experience against upper echelon wrestlers.

"JOAQUIN BUCKLEY STOLE THE SHOW" @Newmansa94 looks add another KO to the resume Saturday![ #UFCTampa is LIVE on @ESPNPlus | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/O1wDPMKJyS

— UFC (@ufc) December 11, 2024

His recent form is made up of strikers and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, no easy task of course, but his grappling chops will really be tested against Covington, who built his reputation with his relentless takedown and Octagon control.

If Buckley can keep the fight on the feet he will have real success against Covington’s gritty but limited kickboxing. However, it’s imperative he keep his back off the fence at all times.

As for Covington, who knows what he truly has left to offer the sport at the highest level. Unlike Woodley and Masvidal, Buckley is young and hungry, with everything still to prove in the sport.

And Covington hasn’t had a legit stoppage win since Max Griffin in 2016.

Buckley has 25 minutes to land something clean, but as every second passes Covington will grow stronger and his shots will sink deeper.

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