NFL Betting: Patriots to survive sternest test of their season so far in Baltimore

THE New England Patriots will face their toughest test of the season on Sunday when they come up against the Baltimore Ravens and their lightning fast quarterback Lamar Jackson. Journalist and NFL expert Nat Coombs runs the rule over that, and two more clashes from NFL Week 9, to select a lock, punt, and longshot to aid your research. All three of Nat's tips landed last week, let's see if he can match that this weekend.  

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LOCK  

The Browns were despatched last week by the Patriots, but have themselves to blame in many respects, throwing the game away. But they did establish the run against New England, with Nick Chubb in particular filling his boots, and proving that this Patriots defense is fallible. Overall on the season though, they’re ranked fourrth in the NFL on rush defense, number two in pass defense, and are allowing teams an average of under eight points a game. Yes, they’ve had an easier schedule than most, but let’s not get carried away here.

Much as I feel the Ravens are one of the few teams capable of taking down New England on their day, and possibly in the playoffs later this season, I don’t see it happening this Sunday. Sure, the Ravens rushing offense is strong, and in Lamar Jackson they have an explosive playmaker, but I like this highly impressive Pats secondary to stifle their passing game, and in contrast back Brady and co to turn it on against an indifferent Ravens pass defense.

Pick: Patriots -3

The 2019 @Patriots have allowed 7.6 points per game, the fewest by any team in the last 40 seasons

The team that ranks 2nd in that span is @CoachBillick's 2000 @Ravens — who went on to win Super Bowl XXXV after allowing 10.3 PPG that season#NEvsBAL pic.twitter.com/HyN8AqlKAT

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 29, 2019

PUNT  

Jon Gruden and his Oakland side will be frustrated that they lost so narrowly to Houston last week meaning back to back defeats after their underdog win at Tottenham’s stadium earlier in October suddenly made them a wild card dark horse. The young offense Gruden has assembled, led by a re-invigorated Derek Carr has a lot of dynamic pieces, most notably Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate RB Josh Jacobs, WR Tyrell Williams and TE Darren Waller, surely on the shortlist for comeback player of the year.

The Lions are having an enigmatic season, with Matt Stafford quietly going about one of his most prolific years of his career – Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones the key beneficiaries in a Top 5 passing offense, but once again they have a struggling running game and a defense depleted by the trade of Quandre Diggs to Seattle, which caused all kinds of consternation amongst the locker room. I rate their head coach Matt Patricia more than many and hope he’s given the time to come good, but it’s the Raiders who edge this one, and will look to their forthcoming schedule (including Jets, Bengals and Chargers) and think their season is still very much alive.

Pick: Raiders -2.5

LONGSHOT  

Much like they were last season, Tampa Bay are capable of bringing a freewheeling, dangerous offense averaging over 30 points every game since Week 3. Expect them to go toe-to-toe with Seattle, forcing Russell Wilson to work his magic, not least as the Seahawks go up against one of the better run defenses in the NFL – one that has twice stifled the great Christian McCafrrey.

So, expect an aerial assault on both sides, and with in form receivers like Mike Evans & Chris Godwin (Bucs) and Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf (Seattle), points aplenty. The line is high, but I like the shootout angle here. PICK OVER 52.5 SEATTLE/TAMPA

Pick: Over 52.5 points Seattle/ Tampa