NFL Betting: Texans and Falcons look good value for wins in Week 7

ANOTHER week, another set of intriguing NFL match-ups. After going two from three in consecutive weeks, will Week 7 be the time NFL expert Nat Coombs secures a clean sweep with his betting tips? Let's find out.  

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LOCK  

The train seems to be coming of the tracks in LA at the moment – and it's certainly new territory for Sean McVay, the dazzlingly talented 33-year-old head coach of the Rams, who led his team to the NFC Championship last time out. There are lots of reasons for their relative struggles: Jared Goff has tailed off from his storming season in 2018, because his offensive line is troubled – though they’ve brought in Austin Corbett from the Browns to try and stabilise.

Todd Gurley, missing last week, is suffering physically and can’t get his A-game going. Defensively, they’re not the playmaking group of their Super Bowl run, though the arrival of top corner Jalen Ramsay in a monster trade may just remedy that. Atlanta have had a miserable season but are still a very dangerous offense, and on their home turf, with what amounts to a free hit – at 1-5 they’re not making the playoffs – I think they’re in a good spot to exploit the Rams inconsistency. Defensively they’re suspect, and I doubt they’ll contain the Rams completely, but I think Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley step up as a home underdog. PICK: Falcons + 3

Pick Atalanta Falcons +3  

Don’t let the Saints record being 5-1 without Drew Brees distract you from the fact the Falcons are 1-5 with Matt Ryan. #staywoke

— Gametime Saint (@gametimesaint) October 14, 2019

PUNT  

Detroit and Minnesota come into this game in contrasting mindsets, with the Vikings flying again – the calling out of QB Kirk Cousins by his receivers just a distant memory – as their aerial offense rolled over Philly last week, putting up 38 points in the process, with a little help from superstar RB Dalvin Cook.

The Lions on the other hand were on the wrong end of some rather suspect calls against Green Bay and at 2-2-1 possess one of the most inaccurate records in the NFL. They’re better than this suggest, and their offense is capable of putting up the points even against a strong Vikings D. They’re averaging 26.5 points over their last 4 games, the Vikings 24. I think we’ll see some points here, enough to make the over tempting.

Pick: Over 43.5 points  

LONGSHOT  

The Texans are finally protecting Deshaun Watson – last week was their second straight game where the line didn’t give up a sack – and their win against the Chiefs last week was significant, announcing them as genuine contenders in the AFC.

The AFC South divisional winner will be one of these two, and whilst the Colts are coming off a BYE week here, and are building a balanced offense, with Marlon Mack establishing himself as  top 10 rusher, and TY Hilton back to fitness and licking his chops at taking on a team he single handedly destroyed last season, I think Houston are in good shape here. Will Fuller has stepped up to complement Deandre Hopkins, Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are a decent 1-2 punch at RB, and it’s a defence full of playmakers. I like the road win here.

Pick: Texans + 1