NFL Super Bowl LIV Best Bets

I HAVE been on the ground in Miami all week, and one of the most striking things to come out of the build-up to Super Bowl 54 is how keenly matched these two teams are, and how it, most likely will come to the finest of margins.

This explains why the city is so divided. For every ten people who think Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will land Head Coach Andy Reid – one of the games great innovators – his first Super Bowl ring, there’s another ten who think that Kyle Shanahan, and the 49’ers defense that has been so impressive all season long, will hold up to the task.

There are fascinating match ups all across the field. Starting with the Chiefs offense – electric, fuelled by Reid’s scheming, speedster receivers, and of course Mahomes – who has had 8TD’s and no interceptions in the playoffs – is emerging as perhaps the most complete quarterback in the NFL – strong armed, dynamic rushing ability, improvisational smarts & a fearless mindset.  Since 2018, no offense has produced more big plays than Kansas City, 119 plays of 25-plus yards across those two regular seasons are more than any other team in the NFL, though they’re going up the number ranked pass defense in the NFL.

Mahomes has weapons all around him. As well as Tyreek Hill (860 yards, 7TD’s), he can look to WR Sammy Watkins (673 yards, 3 TD) and Demarcus Robinson (449 yards 4 TD) and Mecole Hardman  (538 yards 6TD) to contribute – and RB Damien Williams, who can emerge as a receiver out of the backfield as well as carrying the rock. The 49’ers match up well here allowing 4th Fewest receiving yards in the NFL this season against wide receivers.

Tight End Travis Kelce (1229 Yards, 5TD’s) is one of the best in the business, though again it seems that the 49’ers could limit this productivity allowing fewest rec yards vs Tight Ends this season.

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Much depends on if the Chiefs can pull the 49’ers out of zone coverage – which they prefer – into man coverage, which could tilt the balance back towards Kansas City. This is a hard task when considering the 49’ers powerful front 4 – who get in the face of opposing quarterbacks without need Defensive Co-ordinator Robert Saleh to blitz. Having said that, Mahomes is not an easy guy to pin down. The battle between this front four and a solid Chiefs offensive line will be critical.

On the other side of the ball, the 49’ers offense has been favouring the run. In their back to back playoff games, they’ve rocked up 180+ rushing yards via a 3-pronged running back approach. Raheem Mostert has emerged as the star act – 5.6 yards perc carry, 8 TDs. They go against a

Chiefs Run D poor for much of season but impressive in the playoffs allowing just 89.5 rush yards per game, including stifling the hitherto red-hot Derrick Henry in the AFC championship.

This focus on the ground game has meant that Jimmy Garoppolo has just 27 pass attempts in those 2 playoff games but don’t be deceived by this narrative flying around that if this ends up in a shootout, Jimmy G won’t keep up. He’s had 7 games with 250+ passing yards this season and in these games, the 49’ers are 7-0. He’s proven in wins against the Saints, and the Rams that he can turn it on, but he’ll face a Chiefs Pass D that’s been solid for a lot of the season. They do have a weakness against stopping receivers out of the backfield, ranking 32nd in the league. And Kyle Shanahan has demonstrated he’s one of the sharpest offensive minds in the game, so whilst they’ll try and establish the run, not least to control the clock, expect a more varied offense from the 49’ers on Sunday.

Crunch time. I definitely see both teams able to score, and as outlined, the 49’ers will be able to keep pace if Kansas City roll into warp speed. The strongest bet for me is the points total over, but both team totals have appeal. I’m leaning Chiefs, on the money line more than the handicap, as it’s going to be tight.

PICKS

-Over 54 points

-Chiefs – over 27.5

-Chiefs money line