Canelo v Smith: At times over the last three years, Canelo has looked beatable

Callum Smith can shock the world, unify the WBA and WBC world titles and claim a legacy scalp that would push him into the upper echelons of Britain’s greatest ever boxing champions all on one night this weekend when he faces the challenge of Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez in San Antonio, Texas. 

Liverpool’s world number one super-middleweight has waited well over a year for the opportunity to face boxing’s biggest pay-per-view star. Now he simply has to produce the performance of his life to defeat the Mexican superstar and ensure 2020 ends on a high for UK fight fans. 

Standing 6’3” with a seven-inch height and an eight-inch reach advantage, Smith is out to corroborate the old boxing adage ‘a good big man always beats a good little man’. But in his 56-fight career Canelo has proven he’s much more than a good fighter; he’s a modern day great. To succeed, Smith must upgrade his status to great too. 

The youngest of the four fighting Smith brothers, ‘Mundo’ is unbeaten in 27 fights and winner of the 2018 World Boxing Super Series, where he knocked out George Groves in the final. He’s made two world title defences since and, to his credit, has doggedly pursued this Canelo fight. 

Canelo Alvarez (5ft 8ins) vs Callum Smith (6ft 3ins) first face-off for their super-middleweight title fight this weekend. pic.twitter.com/DeibgCOq1c

— Michael Benson (@MichaelBensonn) December 16, 2020

A four-weight world champion, Alvarez has held belts from light-middle through to light-heavy since 2011. His sole defeat came against Floyd Mayweather on points in 2013 (he’d just turned 24) while his 36 career knockouts spotlight an ability to finish fights early. 

The modern poster boy of Mexican boxing, Alvarez can dominate opponents at range or bully them up close. He’s got heavy hands, intelligent head movement and footwork, and an ability to change gears in a split second. But is he still at the peak of his powers? And can Smith utilise his size advantage and freshness to cause the upset? 

At times over the last three years Canelo has looked beatable. Gennady Golovkin beat him up in their first fight, which was only scored a draw due to reprehensible judging. And while Canelo upped his game for the rematch, it was still decided by a close majority decision. 

In May last year, Danny Jacobs came on strong in the second half of their middleweight unification fight to give the judges something to think about. While last time out 36-year-old Sergey Kovalev kept Canelo on the end of his jab for the best part of 10 rounds before he eventually capitulated. The fight was split on the cards at the time of the 11th round finish. 

I expect this fight to follow a similar pattern, Canelo utilising a high peekaboo style guard looking to counter with the left hook, and Smith dominating the punch stats with his jab and skating off the ropes to avoid any body attacks. The difference this time is Smith is young enough, big enough and accurate enough to stay long, sharp and elusive. 

When Canelo does eventually make it inside, he’ll also discover that’s where Smith does his best work. Drilling in hooks and uppercuts and catching the same counter left hook the Mexican favours. After six rounds, Canelo will be forced to change tactics and it’s as he’s overreaching to land that I can see Smith landing a volley of punches to shock the world. 

Admittedly, my heart is ruling my head as little this week, but it is Christmas and I’m most certainly a believer: Callum Smith via TKO in rounds 7-9 to avoid yet another controversial Canelo points decision! 

Latest bout odds: Canelo Alvarez (1/6)  Draw (22/1)  Callum Smith (17/4)

Tips: Callum Smith to win Rounds 7-9 (16/1)