ATP Tennis Betting: Can Copil take advantage against struggling Cilic in Washington?

We made a tiny profit on Monday when Tim Smyczek won as slight underdog against the fading Matt Ebden in straight sets, but Denis Kudla was awful against Tommy Paul prior to that.

There are 11 matches on the card at the Citi Open in Washington DC on Tuesday, where the players can expect 35C heat and 35-40% humidity, with a bit of wind about (17kph) for day two.

Over in Los Cabos it’ll be hot, humid and windy (24kph speeds), so tricky conditions in Mexico on Tuesday.  

Marin Cilic vs Marius Copil

This looks a tricky opener for the struggling Cilic against an opponent who’s won two of their four clashes and had three sets in these conditions to get attuned to the courts here on Monday.

Cilic has failed to find any sort of form so far in 2019, with a dismal performance at Wimbledon against Joao Sousa in his most recent match indicative of the way things have gone for the former US Open champ this campaign.

The Croat is just 11-10 for the season, holding serve only 78.5% of the time and breaking 20.5% of the time for a very mediocre total of 99, which is nowhere near the level he’s been at over the years.

He’s only won 46.8% of his second serve points all season and even Copil, who’s had a weak year as well, has managed more than that at 51.3% and that’s despite losing 13 of his 16 matches at main level.

Copil has proven a tough opponent for Cilic even when Cilic has been in decent nick, with Copil winning two of their three completed meetings (Copil retired in one) and there’s little in it in the numbers.

Cilic has won 2% more points on serve and 2% more on return, which shows how tight this career series has been, and it probably will be again on Tuesday.

Only once since 2012 has Cilic won his opening match of the hard court summer in straight sets and Copil +1.5 sets looks a fair option in this one, with the over 28.5 games at 3.25 a bigger-priced option.

Other underdogs that could potentially go well on Tuesday in DC include Yoshihito Nishioka, Lloyd Harris, and perhaps Bjorn Fratangelo.

Daniil Medvedev, like many players, has been slow to start in his first hard court match of the North American swing, edging past Reilly Opelka in a final set tie break in 2017 and dropping the opener to Yosuke Watanuki last year – both in Washington.

Fratangelo has certainly seen enough of the conditions here in DC already after 2.5 hours against Ivo Karlovic on Monday and taking the American to win set one or any set is an option here.

Kyle Edmund has struggled with his fitness on and off this season and was last seen looking somewhat injured at Wimbledon, so a match against the hard-hitting Harris may not be a simple opener for the Brit.

Fellow Brit Dan Evans will surely be made to work quite hard by Nishioka in a match that may well come down to whoever’s the fitter on the day, with neither man holding much of an advantage on serve.

Nishioka came out on top in similarly hot and humid conditions in Atlanta as slight underdog (2.23) against Evans back in 2016 and against a player who moves very well and doesn’t miss much this might be tough for the Brit in this heat.

The Japanese man has been playing World Team Tennis for Washington Kastles since Wimbledon on outdoor hard and should have few problems making a small adjustment to these conditions.

Andrey Rublev has a rough turnaround from losing the Hamburg final on slow clay on Sunday to lively outdoor hard on Tuesday in Washington, but the layers think that little of Bernard Tomic these days that Rublev in still favourite.

Karen Khachanov has brought Nikolay Davydenko into his team ahead of the hard court swing and reportedly he’s been training with Davydenko for the period prior to Khachanov coming out to Washington.

On paper that sounds like a good move from Khachanov, but he faces a battle of serve and forehand with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Tuesday, which is a tough opener for the Russian.

I can’t imagine I’ll be doing much, if anything, in Los Cabos this week, but Steve Johnson against the misfiring and potentially still injured Grigor Dimitrov in those conditions as underdog is interesting.

This pair have played 0.35 tie breaks per set in their career series and four of their six opening sets have gone to at least 12 games, so in quickish conditions in Los Cabos you’d expect a long one.

But with Dimitrov losing badly to Kevin King last week and choking horrendously at Wimbledon against Corentin Moutet anything is possible with the Bulgarian right now and I certainly wouldn’t be backing him here at 1.65.

 

Best Bets

 

1 point win Copil +1.5 sets to beat Cilic at 1.71 0.5 points win Nishioka to beat Evans at 2.95