ATP Tennis Betting: Fritz a hint of value in all-American clash with Tiafoe

October 28, 2019

Fernando Verdasco got us off to a good start in Bercy on Monday when the veteran Spaniard survived an awful start to defeat Borna Coric in three sets and provide a handy 2.18 winner.

Then we were robbed of a second winner when Jeremy Chardy managed to find a way to break himself serving at *5-6 and 40-0 in set one against Sam Querrey needing one point to land our 2-1 shot of a set one tie break.

Chardy had five game points in total, having not been close to facing (or creating) a break point in the set, but he still managed to somehow engineer losing the game against a returner as mediocre as Querrey.

We’ve got the remaining six matches from round one and three matches from round two on the card on Tuesday in Bercy and of the first round clashes the underdogs that could so some damage include: Taylor Fritz, Ugo Humbert, Ricardas Berankis and Gilles Simon.

Ricardas Berankis gets on the list for his ability on indoor hard and the fact that Kyle Edmund has lost his last eight matches in a row, but I’m not seeing the Lithuanian as a value choice with Edmund in such obvious bad form.

The Brit didn’t even make the Davis Cup squad for a few weeks’ time and I prefer a different wager in this one and that’s tie break played at a price of 2.40.

Edmund holds a lot (89.1% of the time in his 10 main level career matches on indoor hard) and doesn’t break much (17.5%), which has seen him play 0.35 tie breaks per set in those 10 matches.

And Berankis isn’t shy of a breaker either, having played 0.27 per set in his last 10 matches on indoor hard at main level.

I was a little surprised to see Taylor Fritz made slight underdog in the all-American clash with Frances Tiafoe, given that Tiafoe is 9-14 win/loss on indoor hard in his main level career so far.

This pair have pretty much swapped places in the rankings this season, with Tiafoe starting the year at 39 and falling to currently 48th, while Fritz has climbed from 49th to 31st in 2019.

And the stats back that up, with Fritz having won 51% of his matches this year (Tiafoe 47%) and Fritz slightly leads the service hold/break totals by 1% on all surfaces.

Tiafoe does lead the all-time main level hold/break numbers by 3.9% in matches played on indoor hard, which is what I assume the layers have gone with but I’m not sure that’s a great reflection of current form.

Fritz has also performed well against fellow Americans lately, winning 11 of his last 18 main level matches against them and only losing in straight sets twice in those 18 matches.

Tiafoe can’t match that, with a 6-10 win/loss record versus Americans at main level and 2-8 on indoor and outdoor hard combined against them.

Fritz has also proven a profitable player for underdog backers to follow this season, winnning 12 of his 23 matches when priced up as betting underdog in 2019. 

And there’s something on this match as well, with both men being picked in the US Davis Cup squad for the coming tournament in which John Isner isn’t playing, so skipper Mardy Fish will be watching this one closely and the players will know it.

Fritz won their last clash back in 2016, but it doesn’t hold much relevance, however for me Fritz is the better big match player and slight odds against here is okay by me.

Ugo Humbert has been in fine form the last few weeks and looks to have a solid chance of the upset against Grigor Dimitrov, but the layers think so, too, and have Humbert as pretty much joint favourite in this one.

Humbert’s all-time (13 matches: 7-6 win/loss) service hold/break total at main level on indoor hard is a decent 103.7, which trumps the 100 of Dimitrov in Dimi’s last-10 such matches (5-5 win/loss).

Dimitrov has played a big 0.32 tie breaks per set in those 10 matches and given Humbert’s hold of serve mark of 87.2 a breaker is a distinct possibility here.

Humbert was poor on debut here a year ago against Adrian Mannarino, but that was probably due to nerves and his confidence will be high after a semi final in Antwerp and a title in Brest just a couple of days ago.

Gilles Simon is yet another Frenchman with a questionable record here in Bercy, with a losing 12-13 record and a hold/break total of just 94.3 here in those matches.

On current form as well you’d have to fancy Denis Shapovalov to beat Simon, but he’ll have to play well to avoid getting entrapped in Simon’s web and 1.38 is a tad short.

Shapo does have a very good record of 15-4 win/loss in the price range of 1.30 to 1.49 though at main level and I’m not of a mind to risk the veteran Frenchman at a tournament where he’s only broken serve 20% of the time, which is not a lot for him.


Best Bets


0.5 points win Fritz to beat Tiafoe at 2.14
0.5 points win tie break played in Edmund/Berankis at 2.40