ATP Tennis Betting: In-form Skugor can cover the handicap against Shapovalov in Rotterdam

There are eight matches on the card in Rotterdam on Tuesday and the first bet I like on day two begins at (not before) 11.30 UK time on Centre Court.  

Franko Skugor vs Denis Shapovalov

Skugor has produced some very decent efforts against quality opposition on both indoor and outdoor hard at main level in the last year or two and I’m backing him to at least make a match of this against Shapovalov.

The last time that Skugor played at main level on this surface was in Davis Cup in 2017 when he beat Pablo Carreno Busta over five sets as a 6.0 chance and was close against Roberto Bautista Agut, losing in four tight sets as a 9.82 shot.

After that in 2018 he took down Pierre-Hugues Herbert (who beat Shapovalov last week in Montpellier) at Winston-Salem and again fared well against Carreno Busta (losing in a decider).

And the way he’s been serving in qualies here in Rotterdam, with a 75% first serve percentage and winning 81% of the points on his first ball, suggests he’s in a good groove in that department.

Indeed, he bagelled Ilya Ivashka in qualies and so he’ll be pretty confident ahead of this first meeting with Shapovalov, who doesn’t break serve often enough to regularly cover handicaps like this one today of -4.5 games.

Indeed, he’s only done it once in his last 12 best-of-three set matches (and three times in his last 22) and that was courtesy of a 6-1 set against Stan Wawrinka in Tokyo last October.

The young Canadian’s hold/break total is only 100 in his last 12 months at main level and that’s not good enough to be covering this sort of handicap on indoor hard against an opponent serving very well.

The other wager I like on Tuesday is to take no tie breaks in the clash between two excellent returners in David Goffin and Gael Monfils.

In their career series this pair have played just 0.13 tie breaks per set (two in almost 16 sets between them) and Goffin has played 0.11 per set in his 11 career matches in Rotterdam (Monfils 0.15).

Goffin in his last 50 main level matches on indoor hard returns serve a very healthy 27.5% of the time (and plays 0.15 tie breaks per set), while Monfils breaks 23% of the time in his last 50 (0.18 breakers per set), so evens about no breakers here is more than reasonable.

It’s even better when you consider that in the last six years in the main draw of Rotterdam 59% of the matches didn’t feature a tie break, so on that the price on no tie breaks in any match should be 1.69 in theory.

I wouldn’t risk no tie breaks in the clash between the two lucky losers, Marius Copil and Ernests Gulbis, though, with Copil having played 0.47 breakers per set in his six matches in Rotterdam (main draw and qualies).

The Romanian has held serve 90.5% of the time in those half dozen matches and broken just 10.7% of the time, while Gulbis has held serve 91.6% of the time in his 16 Rotterdam matches (again, main draw and qualies) and played 0.29 tie breaks per set.

Gulbis breaks more often than Copil on this surface though, both in Rotterdam (15.7%) and in his last 12 months (13 matches) in the main draw and qualies of main level tournaments (19.3%). Copil has broken only 12.5% of the time in his 15 matches, so I’d probably be leaning towards Ernie here if the price were a little bit bigger.

I’d expect Fernando Verdasco to be much too strong for Matt Ebden on indoor hard and our outright Karen Khachanov hopefully won’t slip up against Tallon Griekspoor, but Gilles Simon might be an underdog option against Tomas Berdych.

Berdych has won four of their last five and Simon’s last two wins have come on quicker surfaces than this at Wimbledon and Shanghai, but fitness is a bit of a worry regarding Berdych these days.

I’d probably take a chance on Simon on a quicker surface, but Berdych has a 115 hold/break total in his career in Rotterdam, where he’s able to hit through the court, while the Frenchman often has to generate his own pace here, which isn’t ideal from his point of view.

 

Best Bet

 

1 point win Skugor +4.5 games to beat Shapovalov at 1.90 0.5 points win no tie breaks in Goffin/Monfils at 1.92