ATP Tennis Betting: Slow Miami conditions give Marterer a chance to upset Fritz

It’s been a bit of a wash out so far at the Miami Open, with no play on Tuesday meaning that the qualies are yet to complete and instead of the usual 16 round one matches on day one we can have only 11 – at best.

The forecast says to expect the rain to still be around on Wednesday (expected to start from 16:00 local time), but it’ll be hot and humid, with 26C temperatures combined with 60-70% humidity, so it’ll be a physical test out there.

Looking at the trends for this tournament the first thing of note is that 50% of those players priced up as betting underdog won in round one here a year ago and over the last three years 40% have gone in.

As with Indian Wells the slow conditions give the clay courters a shot against the hard courters and that could be the case again on day one.  

Maximilian Marterer vs Taylor Fritz

This late night match in the slowest of the day’s conditions looks to me like one where Fritz could struggle against an opponent whose questionable movement won’t be as exposed as it would on a faster court.

Marterer tends to play his best stuff on the clay and he has the power to cause Fritz a lot of problems and the fact that he’s left-handed is another positive for this selection.

Fritz has lost 11 of his 15 main level matches against lefties on all surfaces and that’s perhaps not that surprising given that his forehand is by far his best shot and the backhand a little weak by comparison.

Marterer can expose that weakness in these conditions and it’s also worth noting that Fritz has lost six of his last eight matches when priced up in the 1.50 to 1.70 range, so he’s hardly reliable either as this sort of favourite or against lefties (and quite possibly in these slow conditions, too).

Earlier on Stadium Court I couldn’t count out Bernard Tomic at what seems a rather tempting price of 4.25 against Tomas Berdych, who was beaten by the virtually retired Feli Lopez in straight sets last week at Indian Wells.

He also lost to the struggling Borna Coric prior to that and he’s lost four of his last six matches in total, so he’s not in the best of form by any means.

Bernie hasn’t played since withdrawing from Acapulco with gastroenteritis and he famously produced one of the great tanks of all time here in Miami five years ago against Jarkko Nieminen, but this is another day and anything is possible.

Perhaps a less risky pick and one where we’re guaranteed to get a fair bit of effort at least for our money is to side with Roberto Carballes Baena against Denis Kudla in their 17:30 (approx.) UK time clash on Court 1.

Kudla is 1-4 win/loss in all his matches at the Miami Open and he’d surely like it quicker than this, which gives RCB, who beat Ryan Harrison at Indian Wells a fair chance.

Kudla beat RCB in much quicker conditions at the Australian Open last season, but he’ll find it tougher here and far more humid, which may also be a factor in RCB’s favour, with the Spaniard likely to be the one to fare better in these conditions physically.

Another possible one is Federico Delbonis, who we were a little unlucky with last week in Indian Wells on a very windy day that in the end contributed to a very tight final set tie break loss in a marathon affair against Jordan Thompson.

It’s not expected to be that windy in Miami Gardens today and looking at Peter Gojowczyk’s record against lefties I’d have to give Delbonis a fair chance on a slow court against the German, who’s struggling for form at the moment.

Gojowczyk would prefer it quicker and against a rightie, given that he’s lost seven of his last nine against left-handers at main level and in his 13 completed main level matches against lefties he’s won only once in straight sets.

So, there’s clearly an issue there for Gojowczyk against lefties and given Gojowczyk’s flat hitting style he’ll have to play very well indeed to justify a price of 1.63 in this one in such slow conditions.

With round one in Miami likely to produce a fair few underdog winners I’ll take chances on Marterer, Delbonis and Carballes Baena on day one.

 

Best Bets

 

1 point win Marterer to beat Fritz at 2.40 0.5 points win Carballes Baena to beat Kudla at 2.43 0.5 points win Delbonis to beat Gojowczyk at 2.30