Australian OpenTennis

Australian Open Betting: A massive match awaits as the world no.1 takes on the tournament favourite

January 20, 2019

Madison Keys – Elina Svitolina (Monday 00.00)

The only one of the 4 encounters on the ladies tournament tonight that I have a hard time figuring out. I inclined to stick with Keys, but not enough to go with these odds.

Should one really want a punt on this match, one might consider a flutter on the first set to be a long, drawn-out one They have played twice and both times the first set ended in a tie break.  

Naomi Osaka – A. Sevastova (Monday 01.00)

Osaka was right on the brink of defeat in the previous round, where Hsieh was leading a set and 4-2 before Osaka eventually got a grip. I am still not convinced that this is her tournament and she faces another tricky opponent.

They met twice in 2018 which was the year of Osaka’s big breakthrough, but she lost both meetings with the Latvian. 6-4 6-1 in Doha and 6-4 6-4 in Beijing in October.

They have already played once in 2019, where Sevastova took the first set before Osaka turned it around but again the Latvian proved she has a decent ”read” on the Japanese, who is still finding her feet as a Grand Slam-winner.

It is rare for Osaka to play two 3-setters next to each other so instead of settling for her to win a set, I am going for the straight win.  

Garbine Muguruza – Karolina Pliskova (Monday 05.00)

One never quite knows what to expect from Muguruza, but we do know that she finds it hard to deal with Pliskova and judging by their h2h the price on the latter is tempting.

They have 9 previous meetings with Pliskova winning 7. She is 4-1 on outdoor hard courts, and every win came around with at least to games to spare.

It could also be worth keeping an eye on the overs-market as six of Pliskova’s last 9 matches went to 3 sets and it is two great servers meeting here. 

Simona Halep – Serena Williams (Monday 08.00)

Halep played a brilliant match against Venus Williams, but it takes a braver gambler than me to go against Serena at the moment.

Halep will have to run, run and the run some more and be absolutely on top of her defensive game to succeed here. It is the first meeting since Serena gave birth and one could argue that Halep has improved and that the American is perhaps not yet the same player. But…

They have 9 previous meetings and only one win for Halep in that time. The h2h on outdoors hard court reads 5-0 in Serena’s favour. All of them by at least four games to spare, six of them by at least five games.

Halep definitely has improved since their most recent encounter in 2016, but from what Serena has delivered so far, I can’t go against her.

Best bets:

0.5 point on Sevatova at 2.23
0.5 point Pliskova on -1.5 games at 1.89
1 point Serena on -3.5 games at 1.75